South Dakota's at-large congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, remains a Republican stronghold following incumbent Dusty Johnson's June 2025 announcement to seek the governorship instead of reelection, opening the seat ahead of the June 2 Republican primary featuring well-funded Attorney General Marty Jackley and James Bialota. Trader consensus reflects the district's history of lopsided GOP victories—margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles—and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings, bolstered by Democrats' modest fundraising (e.g., Nikki Gronli at $55,000) versus Jackley's $922,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No recent polling shows competitiveness, with candidate filings finalized by early April 2026. Scenarios like a GOP nominee scandal, primary upset weakening the winner, or unforeseen national midterm shifts could challenge this, though structural advantages favor Republicans on November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,855 Обс.
92%
Democratic Party
$1,722 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, remains a Republican stronghold following incumbent Dusty Johnson's June 2025 announcement to seek the governorship instead of reelection, opening the seat ahead of the June 2 Republican primary featuring well-funded Attorney General Marty Jackley and James Bialota. Trader consensus reflects the district's history of lopsided GOP victories—margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles—and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings, bolstered by Democrats' modest fundraising (e.g., Nikki Gronli at $55,000) versus Jackley's $922,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No recent polling shows competitiveness, with candidate filings finalized by early April 2026. Scenarios like a GOP nominee scandal, primary upset weakening the winner, or unforeseen national midterm shifts could challenge this, though structural advantages favor Republicans on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,577Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, remains a Republican stronghold following incumbent Dusty Johnson's June 2025 announcement to seek the governorship instead of reelection, opening the seat ahead of the June 2 Republican primary featuring well-funded Attorney General Marty Jackley and James Bialota. Trader consensus reflects the district's history of lopsided GOP victories—margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles—and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings, bolstered by Democrats' modest fundraising (e.g., Nikki Gronli at $55,000) versus Jackley's $922,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No recent polling shows competitiveness, with candidate filings finalized by early April 2026. Scenarios like a GOP nominee scandal, primary upset weakening the winner, or unforeseen national midterm shifts could challenge this, though structural advantages favor Republicans on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$4,577Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, remains a Republican stronghold following incumbent Dusty Johnson's June 2025 announcement to seek the governorship instead of reelection, opening the seat ahead of the June 2 Republican primary featuring well-funded Attorney General Marty Jackley and James Bialota. Trader consensus reflects the district's history of lopsided GOP victories—margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles—and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings, bolstered by Democrats' modest fundraising (e.g., Nikki Gronli at $55,000) versus Jackley's $922,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. No recent polling shows competitiveness, with candidate filings finalized by early April 2026. Scenarios like a GOP nominee scandal, primary upset weakening the winner, or unforeseen national midterm shifts could challenge this, though structural advantages favor Republicans on November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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