Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson seeks reelection in California's 4th congressional district under the state's top-two primary system, where the June 2, 2026, primary will determine general election contenders. Redistricting via Proposition 50 incorporated additional rural and traditionally Republican-leaning areas in northern counties, narrowing the district's Democratic edge to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8, yet Thompson's decades-long tenure, consistent fundraising advantage, and prior 66.5% general election performance sustain strong trader confidence in a Democratic outcome. Multiple Republican candidates have filed, but none have emerged with comparable resources or name recognition, while the Democratic primary contest between Thompson and challenger Eric Jones remains contained within the party. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting limited pathways for a Republican general election victory absent major shifts before November 3, 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$791 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$2,084 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson seeks reelection in California's 4th congressional district under the state's top-two primary system, where the June 2, 2026, primary will determine general election contenders. Redistricting via Proposition 50 incorporated additional rural and traditionally Republican-leaning areas in northern counties, narrowing the district's Democratic edge to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8, yet Thompson's decades-long tenure, consistent fundraising advantage, and prior 66.5% general election performance sustain strong trader confidence in a Democratic outcome. Multiple Republican candidates have filed, but none have emerged with comparable resources or name recognition, while the Democratic primary contest between Thompson and challenger Eric Jones remains contained within the party. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting limited pathways for a Republican general election victory absent major shifts before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,875Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson seeks reelection in California's 4th congressional district under the state's top-two primary system, where the June 2, 2026, primary will determine general election contenders. Redistricting via Proposition 50 incorporated additional rural and traditionally Republican-leaning areas in northern counties, narrowing the district's Democratic edge to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8, yet Thompson's decades-long tenure, consistent fundraising advantage, and prior 66.5% general election performance sustain strong trader confidence in a Democratic outcome. Multiple Republican candidates have filed, but none have emerged with comparable resources or name recognition, while the Democratic primary contest between Thompson and challenger Eric Jones remains contained within the party. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting limited pathways for a Republican general election victory absent major shifts before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$2,875Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson seeks reelection in California's 4th congressional district under the state's top-two primary system, where the June 2, 2026, primary will determine general election contenders. Redistricting via Proposition 50 incorporated additional rural and traditionally Republican-leaning areas in northern counties, narrowing the district's Democratic edge to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8, yet Thompson's decades-long tenure, consistent fundraising advantage, and prior 66.5% general election performance sustain strong trader confidence in a Democratic outcome. Multiple Republican candidates have filed, but none have emerged with comparable resources or name recognition, while the Democratic primary contest between Thompson and challenger Eric Jones remains contained within the party. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting limited pathways for a Republican general election victory absent major shifts before November 3, 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання