Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district heading into the 2026 cycle. The seat sits in a strongly Democratic-leaning area where the party has maintained consistent majorities across recent cycles, reinforced by statewide trends that favor Democrats in all nine House districts. Primary challengers have largely consolidated or withdrawn ahead of the September 1, 2026, Democratic primary, reducing internal competition. A presumptive Republican nominee faces structural barriers including limited fundraising visibility and the district's partisan composition. Traders reflect this consensus through elevated Democratic probabilities, though late developments such as an unexpected primary upset, major scandal involving the incumbent, or an extraordinary national partisan shift could still alter the general-election outcome on November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$46,320 Обс.
$46,320 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$46,320 Обс.
$46,320 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$22,730 Обс.
95%
Republican Party
$23,590 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district heading into the 2026 cycle. The seat sits in a strongly Democratic-leaning area where the party has maintained consistent majorities across recent cycles, reinforced by statewide trends that favor Democrats in all nine House districts. Primary challengers have largely consolidated or withdrawn ahead of the September 1, 2026, Democratic primary, reducing internal competition. A presumptive Republican nominee faces structural barriers including limited fundraising visibility and the district's partisan composition. Traders reflect this consensus through elevated Democratic probabilities, though late developments such as an unexpected primary upset, major scandal involving the incumbent, or an extraordinary national partisan shift could still alter the general-election outcome on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$46,320Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district heading into the 2026 cycle. The seat sits in a strongly Democratic-leaning area where the party has maintained consistent majorities across recent cycles, reinforced by statewide trends that favor Democrats in all nine House districts. Primary challengers have largely consolidated or withdrawn ahead of the September 1, 2026, Democratic primary, reducing internal competition. A presumptive Republican nominee faces structural barriers including limited fundraising visibility and the district's partisan composition. Traders reflect this consensus through elevated Democratic probabilities, though late developments such as an unexpected primary upset, major scandal involving the incumbent, or an extraordinary national partisan shift could still alter the general-election outcome on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$46,320Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district heading into the 2026 cycle. The seat sits in a strongly Democratic-leaning area where the party has maintained consistent majorities across recent cycles, reinforced by statewide trends that favor Democrats in all nine House districts. Primary challengers have largely consolidated or withdrawn ahead of the September 1, 2026, Democratic primary, reducing internal competition. A presumptive Republican nominee faces structural barriers including limited fundraising visibility and the district's partisan composition. Traders reflect this consensus through elevated Democratic probabilities, though late developments such as an unexpected primary upset, major scandal involving the incumbent, or an extraordinary national partisan shift could still alter the general-election outcome on November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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