China’s official growth target of 4.5–5.0% for 2026, combined with consensus forecasts clustered in the same range from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank, anchors trader expectations for the annual GDP figure. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, driven by export strength in high-tech and AI-linked goods, yet Q2 slowed to 4.3% year-on-year amid weak domestic demand, contracting fixed-asset investment, and ongoing property-sector adjustment. Policymakers have signaled targeted fiscal support and structural monetary measures to stabilize activity without broad stimulus, while resilient external demand continues to offset softer consumption and investment. These factors sustain the narrow band around the official goal as the dominant outcome, with limited probability assigned to materially stronger or weaker results absent major policy shifts or external shocks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 5.9%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.0%
$900,178 Обс.
$900,178 Обс.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
90%
5.0–6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
1%
4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 5.9%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.0%
$900,178 Обс.
$900,178 Обс.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$68,058 Обс.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$75,379 Обс.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$45,830 Обс.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,476 Обс.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$223,020 Обс.
90%
5.0–6.0%
$80,873 Обс.
6%
6.0-7.0%
$87,943 Обс.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$65,353 Обс.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$54,761 Обс.
1%
9.0%+
$117,484 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official growth target of 4.5–5.0% for 2026, combined with consensus forecasts clustered in the same range from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank, anchors trader expectations for the annual GDP figure. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, driven by export strength in high-tech and AI-linked goods, yet Q2 slowed to 4.3% year-on-year amid weak domestic demand, contracting fixed-asset investment, and ongoing property-sector adjustment. Policymakers have signaled targeted fiscal support and structural monetary measures to stabilize activity without broad stimulus, while resilient external demand continues to offset softer consumption and investment. These factors sustain the narrow band around the official goal as the dominant outcome, with limited probability assigned to materially stronger or weaker results absent major policy shifts or external shocks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$900,178Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official growth target of 4.5–5.0% for 2026, combined with consensus forecasts clustered in the same range from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank, anchors trader expectations for the annual GDP figure. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, driven by export strength in high-tech and AI-linked goods, yet Q2 slowed to 4.3% year-on-year amid weak domestic demand, contracting fixed-asset investment, and ongoing property-sector adjustment. Policymakers have signaled targeted fiscal support and structural monetary measures to stabilize activity without broad stimulus, while resilient external demand continues to offset softer consumption and investment. These factors sustain the narrow band around the official goal as the dominant outcome, with limited probability assigned to materially stronger or weaker results absent major policy shifts or external shocks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$900,178Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official growth target of 4.5–5.0% for 2026, combined with consensus forecasts clustered in the same range from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank, anchors trader expectations for the annual GDP figure. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, driven by export strength in high-tech and AI-linked goods, yet Q2 slowed to 4.3% year-on-year amid weak domestic demand, contracting fixed-asset investment, and ongoing property-sector adjustment. Policymakers have signaled targeted fiscal support and structural monetary measures to stabilize activity without broad stimulus, while resilient external demand continues to offset softer consumption and investment. These factors sustain the narrow band around the official goal as the dominant outcome, with limited probability assigned to materially stronger or weaker results absent major policy shifts or external shocks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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