Canada’s July 2026 monthly GDP faces elevated uncertainty ahead of the September 29 official release, with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate showing essentially flat output after a 0.3% June gain. Offsetting sector dynamics—gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services balanced by weakness in retail trade and manufacturing—have produced closely matched market-implied probabilities across outcome bins. This dispersion reflects historical revision volatility in monthly GDP by industry, combined with moderating momentum following the Q2 rebound in exports and domestic demand, while Bank of Canada policy holds steady at 2.25% amid trade frictions and subdued population growth. Traders are pricing in the risk that final data could shift notably within the reported range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.0 to 0.1% 29%
0.8%+ 29%
<0.0% 28%
0.4 to 0.5% 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 29, 2026
<0.0%
28%
0.0 to 0.1%
29%
0.2 to 0.3%
25%
0.4 to 0.5%
26%
0.6 to 0.7%
26%
0.8%+
29%
0.0 to 0.1% 29%
0.8%+ 29%
<0.0% 28%
0.4 to 0.5% 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 29, 2026
<0.0%
$0 Обс.
28%
0.0 to 0.1%
$20 Обс.
29%
0.2 to 0.3%
$0 Обс.
25%
0.4 to 0.5%
$0 Обс.
26%
0.6 to 0.7%
$0 Обс.
26%
0.8%+
$0 Обс.
29%
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Canada’s July 2026 monthly GDP faces elevated uncertainty ahead of the September 29 official release, with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate showing essentially flat output after a 0.3% June gain. Offsetting sector dynamics—gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services balanced by weakness in retail trade and manufacturing—have produced closely matched market-implied probabilities across outcome bins. This dispersion reflects historical revision volatility in monthly GDP by industry, combined with moderating momentum following the Q2 rebound in exports and domestic demand, while Bank of Canada policy holds steady at 2.25% amid trade frictions and subdued population growth. Traders are pricing in the risk that final data could shift notably within the reported range.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Sep 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Canada’s July 2026 monthly GDP faces elevated uncertainty ahead of the September 29 official release, with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate showing essentially flat output after a 0.3% June gain. Offsetting sector dynamics—gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services balanced by weakness in retail trade and manufacturing—have produced closely matched market-implied probabilities across outcome bins. This dispersion reflects historical revision volatility in monthly GDP by industry, combined with moderating momentum following the Q2 rebound in exports and domestic demand, while Bank of Canada policy holds steady at 2.25% amid trade frictions and subdued population growth. Traders are pricing in the risk that final data could shift notably within the reported range.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Sep 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Canada’s July 2026 monthly GDP faces elevated uncertainty ahead of the September 29 official release, with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate showing essentially flat output after a 0.3% June gain. Offsetting sector dynamics—gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services balanced by weakness in retail trade and manufacturing—have produced closely matched market-implied probabilities across outcome bins. This dispersion reflects historical revision volatility in monthly GDP by industry, combined with moderating momentum following the Q2 rebound in exports and domestic demand, while Bank of Canada policy holds steady at 2.25% amid trade frictions and subdued population growth. Traders are pricing in the risk that final data could shift notably within the reported range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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