Recent quarterly GDP prints, with Q2 2026 advancing at a 1.5% annualized rate following Q1's 1.6%, have tempered near-term momentum yet reinforced trader focus on the 2.0–2.5% annual outcome. Investment-led expansion, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, continues to offset softening consumer spending amid affordability pressures and tariff headwinds, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.2% from sources such as the CBO and Conference Board. Fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures and resilient labor conditions further support the market-implied odds clustered in the 1.5–2.5% bands, while downside risks from higher energy prices and immigration policy remain priced at lower probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 36%
1.5–2.0% 25.0%
>2.5% 22%
1.0–1.5% 9.6%
$57,938 Обс.
$57,938 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
7%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1.5–2.0%
25%
2.0–2.5%
36%
>2.5%
22%
2.0–2.5% 36%
1.5–2.0% 25.0%
>2.5% 22%
1.0–1.5% 9.6%
$57,938 Обс.
$57,938 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,439 Обс.
7%
0.5–1.0%
$17,161 Обс.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,814 Обс.
10%
1.5–2.0%
$6,602 Обс.
25%
2.0–2.5%
$7,023 Обс.
36%
>2.5%
$15,898 Обс.
22%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP prints, with Q2 2026 advancing at a 1.5% annualized rate following Q1's 1.6%, have tempered near-term momentum yet reinforced trader focus on the 2.0–2.5% annual outcome. Investment-led expansion, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, continues to offset softening consumer spending amid affordability pressures and tariff headwinds, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.2% from sources such as the CBO and Conference Board. Fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures and resilient labor conditions further support the market-implied odds clustered in the 1.5–2.5% bands, while downside risks from higher energy prices and immigration policy remain priced at lower probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$57,938Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP prints, with Q2 2026 advancing at a 1.5% annualized rate following Q1's 1.6%, have tempered near-term momentum yet reinforced trader focus on the 2.0–2.5% annual outcome. Investment-led expansion, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, continues to offset softening consumer spending amid affordability pressures and tariff headwinds, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.2% from sources such as the CBO and Conference Board. Fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures and resilient labor conditions further support the market-implied odds clustered in the 1.5–2.5% bands, while downside risks from higher energy prices and immigration policy remain priced at lower probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$57,938Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent quarterly GDP prints, with Q2 2026 advancing at a 1.5% annualized rate following Q1's 1.6%, have tempered near-term momentum yet reinforced trader focus on the 2.0–2.5% annual outcome. Investment-led expansion, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, continues to offset softening consumer spending amid affordability pressures and tariff headwinds, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.2% from sources such as the CBO and Conference Board. Fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures and resilient labor conditions further support the market-implied odds clustered in the 1.5–2.5% bands, while downside risks from higher energy prices and immigration policy remain priced at lower probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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