Trader sentiment on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% Q4/Q4 growth—within a 2.2–2.5% central tendency—and upside from Goldman Sachs' 2.5%+ forecasts amid resilient consumer spending. Recent downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.7% annualized, alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 2026 nowcast easing to 1.3% as of April 9, have tempered near-term momentum but not full-year outlooks, bolstered by March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment. Lower odds on sub-2% bins signal limited recession fears; watch Q1 GDP advance estimate late April.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 55%
1.5–2.0% 11.7%
<0.5% 10.2%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 Обс.
$26,701 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
7%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
55%
>2.5% 55%
1.5–2.0% 11.7%
<0.5% 10.2%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 Обс.
$26,701 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,752 Обс.
10%
0.5–1.0%
$15,052 Обс.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,460 Обс.
7%
1.5–2.0%
$1,277 Обс.
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 Обс.
10%
>2.5%
$3,820 Обс.
55%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% Q4/Q4 growth—within a 2.2–2.5% central tendency—and upside from Goldman Sachs' 2.5%+ forecasts amid resilient consumer spending. Recent downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.7% annualized, alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 2026 nowcast easing to 1.3% as of April 9, have tempered near-term momentum but not full-year outlooks, bolstered by March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment. Lower odds on sub-2% bins signal limited recession fears; watch Q1 GDP advance estimate late April.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,701Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% Q4/Q4 growth—within a 2.2–2.5% central tendency—and upside from Goldman Sachs' 2.5%+ forecasts amid resilient consumer spending. Recent downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.7% annualized, alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 2026 nowcast easing to 1.3% as of April 9, have tempered near-term momentum but not full-year outlooks, bolstered by March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment. Lower odds on sub-2% bins signal limited recession fears; watch Q1 GDP advance estimate late April.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$26,701Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% Q4/Q4 growth—within a 2.2–2.5% central tendency—and upside from Goldman Sachs' 2.5%+ forecasts amid resilient consumer spending. Recent downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.7% annualized, alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 2026 nowcast easing to 1.3% as of April 9, have tempered near-term momentum but not full-year outlooks, bolstered by March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment. Lower odds on sub-2% bins signal limited recession fears; watch Q1 GDP advance estimate late April.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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