Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office and private economists project real U.S. GDP expanding 2.2% to 2.5% for full-year 2026, supported by first-half data showing annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient business investment, AI-driven productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act. Traders assign this high implied probability to positive annual growth because these factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and slower consumer spending, aligning with historical base rates that make outright contraction rare outside severe shocks. Potential tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt policy reversals that could tip quarterly readings negative, though such scenarios appear insufficient to reverse the full-year consensus at current market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% шанс
$32,234 Обс.
$32,234 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
4% шанс
$32,234 Обс.
$32,234 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office and private economists project real U.S. GDP expanding 2.2% to 2.5% for full-year 2026, supported by first-half data showing annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient business investment, AI-driven productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act. Traders assign this high implied probability to positive annual growth because these factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and slower consumer spending, aligning with historical base rates that make outright contraction rare outside severe shocks. Potential tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt policy reversals that could tip quarterly readings negative, though such scenarios appear insufficient to reverse the full-year consensus at current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$32,234Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office and private economists project real U.S. GDP expanding 2.2% to 2.5% for full-year 2026, supported by first-half data showing annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient business investment, AI-driven productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act. Traders assign this high implied probability to positive annual growth because these factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and slower consumer spending, aligning with historical base rates that make outright contraction rare outside severe shocks. Potential tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt policy reversals that could tip quarterly readings negative, though such scenarios appear insufficient to reverse the full-year consensus at current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Обсяг
$32,234Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office and private economists project real U.S. GDP expanding 2.2% to 2.5% for full-year 2026, supported by first-half data showing annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient business investment, AI-driven productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act. Traders assign this high implied probability to positive annual growth because these factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and slower consumer spending, aligning with historical base rates that make outright contraction rare outside severe shocks. Potential tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt policy reversals that could tip quarterly readings negative, though such scenarios appear insufficient to reverse the full-year consensus at current market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання