Recent monthly and quarterly UK GDP releases have shown resilient services-led expansion, with Q2 2026 annual growth at 1.2% and July output rising 0.4% month-on-month, yet the primary factor anchoring the 1-2% outcome at 88.6% implied probability remains the energy price shock from Middle East tensions. Higher global energy costs have eroded real household incomes and business margins, prompting forecasters including the Bank of England, IMF, and CBI to converge on 1.0-1.1% full-year growth. Tight financial conditions and subdued private-sector momentum further support this range, while recent data strength has limited downside risks to the 0-1% band. Key near-term catalysts include September CPI and labor-market prints plus the next Monetary Policy Committee decision.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено1-2% 88.6%
0-1% 10%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.3%
$83,507 Обс.
$83,507 Обс.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
1%
0-1%
10%
1-2%
89%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 88.6%
0-1% 10%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.3%
$83,507 Обс.
$83,507 Обс.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
$11,971 Обс.
1%
0-1%
$20,172 Обс.
10%
1-2%
$30,118 Обс.
89%
2-3%
$4,731 Обс.
1%
3-4%
$3,663 Обс.
1%
4-5%
$8,810 Обс.
<1%
5%+
$4,041 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent monthly and quarterly UK GDP releases have shown resilient services-led expansion, with Q2 2026 annual growth at 1.2% and July output rising 0.4% month-on-month, yet the primary factor anchoring the 1-2% outcome at 88.6% implied probability remains the energy price shock from Middle East tensions. Higher global energy costs have eroded real household incomes and business margins, prompting forecasters including the Bank of England, IMF, and CBI to converge on 1.0-1.1% full-year growth. Tight financial conditions and subdued private-sector momentum further support this range, while recent data strength has limited downside risks to the 0-1% band. Key near-term catalysts include September CPI and labor-market prints plus the next Monetary Policy Committee decision.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Обсяг
$83,507Дата завершення
Feb 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent monthly and quarterly UK GDP releases have shown resilient services-led expansion, with Q2 2026 annual growth at 1.2% and July output rising 0.4% month-on-month, yet the primary factor anchoring the 1-2% outcome at 88.6% implied probability remains the energy price shock from Middle East tensions. Higher global energy costs have eroded real household incomes and business margins, prompting forecasters including the Bank of England, IMF, and CBI to converge on 1.0-1.1% full-year growth. Tight financial conditions and subdued private-sector momentum further support this range, while recent data strength has limited downside risks to the 0-1% band. Key near-term catalysts include September CPI and labor-market prints plus the next Monetary Policy Committee decision.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$83,507Дата завершення
Feb 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly and quarterly UK GDP releases have shown resilient services-led expansion, with Q2 2026 annual growth at 1.2% and July output rising 0.4% month-on-month, yet the primary factor anchoring the 1-2% outcome at 88.6% implied probability remains the energy price shock from Middle East tensions. Higher global energy costs have eroded real household incomes and business margins, prompting forecasters including the Bank of England, IMF, and CBI to converge on 1.0-1.1% full-year growth. Tight financial conditions and subdued private-sector momentum further support this range, while recent data strength has limited downside risks to the 0-1% band. Key near-term catalysts include September CPI and labor-market prints plus the next Monetary Policy Committee decision.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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