Texas and Maine lead trader consensus as the likeliest 2026 Senate contests to finish with the narrowest margin, followed closely by Alaska, Iowa, and the Ohio special election. Multiple Republican-held seats feature strong Democratic challengers against vulnerable or retiring incumbents, while open races in Michigan and Iowa have produced competitive nominee matchups. Recent primaries, candidate announcements, and early general-election polling showing sub-5-point spreads in these states have kept probabilities clustered. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling releases, debate performances, turnout patterns in key battlegrounds, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps by shifting resources and media attention toward a single race.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 18%
Maine 17%
Alaska 14%
Iowa 10.8%
$23,136 Обс.
$23,136 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
18%
Maine
17%
Alaska
14%
Iowa
11%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Michigan
7%
New Hampshire
5%
Nebraska
5%
Florida (Special)
4%
New Mexico
3%
North Carolina
3%
Colorado
3%
Georgia
3%
Virginia
2%
Montana
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 18%
Maine 17%
Alaska 14%
Iowa 10.8%
$23,136 Обс.
$23,136 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$361 Обс.
18%
Maine
$460 Обс.
17%
Alaska
$4,928 Обс.
14%
Iowa
$2,420 Обс.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$3,527 Обс.
10%
Michigan
$1,412 Обс.
7%
New Hampshire
$480 Обс.
5%
Nebraska
$256 Обс.
5%
Florida (Special)
$196 Обс.
4%
New Mexico
$155 Обс.
3%
North Carolina
$541 Обс.
3%
Colorado
$657 Обс.
3%
Georgia
$747 Обс.
3%
Virginia
$5,017 Обс.
2%
Montana
$526 Обс.
1%
Minnesota
$1,451 Обс.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas and Maine lead trader consensus as the likeliest 2026 Senate contests to finish with the narrowest margin, followed closely by Alaska, Iowa, and the Ohio special election. Multiple Republican-held seats feature strong Democratic challengers against vulnerable or retiring incumbents, while open races in Michigan and Iowa have produced competitive nominee matchups. Recent primaries, candidate announcements, and early general-election polling showing sub-5-point spreads in these states have kept probabilities clustered. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling releases, debate performances, turnout patterns in key battlegrounds, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps by shifting resources and media attention toward a single race.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Обсяг
$23,136Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas and Maine lead trader consensus as the likeliest 2026 Senate contests to finish with the narrowest margin, followed closely by Alaska, Iowa, and the Ohio special election. Multiple Republican-held seats feature strong Democratic challengers against vulnerable or retiring incumbents, while open races in Michigan and Iowa have produced competitive nominee matchups. Recent primaries, candidate announcements, and early general-election polling showing sub-5-point spreads in these states have kept probabilities clustered. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling releases, debate performances, turnout patterns in key battlegrounds, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps by shifting resources and media attention toward a single race.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$23,136Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Texas and Maine lead trader consensus as the likeliest 2026 Senate contests to finish with the narrowest margin, followed closely by Alaska, Iowa, and the Ohio special election. Multiple Republican-held seats feature strong Democratic challengers against vulnerable or retiring incumbents, while open races in Michigan and Iowa have produced competitive nominee matchups. Recent primaries, candidate announcements, and early general-election polling showing sub-5-point spreads in these states have kept probabilities clustered. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling releases, debate performances, turnout patterns in key battlegrounds, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps by shifting resources and media attention toward a single race.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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