Several 2026 Senate contests remain within a few points in recent polling averages, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine rated toss-ups by major forecasters due to open seats, retirements, and strong challengers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in a race where fundraising and turnout among suburban voters could decide a narrow outcome. Iowa pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek following Joni Ernst’s retirement, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Texas and Iowa as the narrowest finish because sustained national generic ballot trends and late-cycle shifts in these battlegrounds continue to compress projected margins ahead of November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTexas 16%
Iowa 14.5%
Nebraska 11.5%
Michigan 10.8%
$42,046 Обс.
$42,046 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
16%
Iowa
15%
Nebraska
12%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
11%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Maine
9%
New Hampshire
7%
Montana
4%
Florida (Special)
10%
Virginia
3%
North Carolina
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
1%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 16%
Iowa 14.5%
Nebraska 11.5%
Michigan 10.8%
$42,046 Обс.
$42,046 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,876 Обс.
16%
Iowa
$3,287 Обс.
15%
Nebraska
$2,730 Обс.
12%
Michigan
$3,055 Обс.
11%
Alaska
$7,695 Обс.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$8,979 Обс.
9%
Maine
$1,398 Обс.
9%
New Hampshire
$788 Обс.
7%
Montana
$1,643 Обс.
4%
Florida (Special)
$390 Обс.
10%
Virginia
$5,073 Обс.
3%
North Carolina
$1,483 Обс.
2%
Georgia
$824 Обс.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Обс.
1%
Minnesota
$1,561 Обс.
1%
Colorado
$1,103 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain within a few points in recent polling averages, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine rated toss-ups by major forecasters due to open seats, retirements, and strong challengers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in a race where fundraising and turnout among suburban voters could decide a narrow outcome. Iowa pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek following Joni Ernst’s retirement, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Texas and Iowa as the narrowest finish because sustained national generic ballot trends and late-cycle shifts in these battlegrounds continue to compress projected margins ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Обсяг
$42,046Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain within a few points in recent polling averages, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine rated toss-ups by major forecasters due to open seats, retirements, and strong challengers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in a race where fundraising and turnout among suburban voters could decide a narrow outcome. Iowa pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek following Joni Ernst’s retirement, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Texas and Iowa as the narrowest finish because sustained national generic ballot trends and late-cycle shifts in these battlegrounds continue to compress projected margins ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$42,046Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 Senate contests remain within a few points in recent polling averages, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine rated toss-ups by major forecasters due to open seats, retirements, and strong challengers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in a race where fundraising and turnout among suburban voters could decide a narrow outcome. Iowa pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek following Joni Ernst’s retirement, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Texas and Iowa as the narrowest finish because sustained national generic ballot trends and late-cycle shifts in these battlegrounds continue to compress projected margins ahead of November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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