Turkey’s constitution sets President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current term through 2028, with the next presidential election scheduled no later than May of that year and no national vote or formal removal process set before the end of 2026. Erdoğan has publicly stated he plans to step down at term’s end and retire from politics, while continuing to exercise executive authority through policy announcements and diplomatic engagements as recently as June 2026. Unconfirmed reports of health concerns have circulated since early 2026 but lack official verification and have not altered his active role. Opposition calls for snap elections in 2025 produced no procedural changes, leaving no imminent catalysts that would trigger an early exit. Traders price these structural and political factors into the 92.5 percent implied probability that Erdoğan remains in office past December 31, 2026.