Turkey's constitution schedules the next presidential election for May 2028, placing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the final months of his second term under the current executive system as of late 2026. His ruling coalition holds a parliamentary majority sufficient to block early elections or removal efforts, while opposition parties face ongoing legal pressures and internal fragmentation that reduce near-term challenges. Erdoğan has publicly affirmed his intent to continue serving, citing health and national needs, with no verified developments indicating resignation or incapacity by year-end. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" reflects these structural and institutional barriers. Remote scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event prompting voluntary exit or an unforeseen parliamentary realignment enabling snap elections before December 31, 2026.