Recent redistricting in Florida, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by courts for the November general election, shifted the 14th district’s partisan voting index to R+4 and prompted forecasters to rate the seat Lean Republican. Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge on August 18, while multiple Republicans, including former state representative Mike Beltran, compete in their primary the same day. These factors, combined with the broader statewide map favoring Republicans, have narrowed historical Democratic advantages and produced closely matched trader probabilities. Primary outcomes, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics through fall could widen or close the gap before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$21,053 Обс.
$21,053 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
51%
Democratic Party
50%
$21,053 Обс.
$21,053 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$11,851 Обс.
51%
Democratic Party
$9,202 Обс.
50%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting in Florida, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by courts for the November general election, shifted the 14th district’s partisan voting index to R+4 and prompted forecasters to rate the seat Lean Republican. Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge on August 18, while multiple Republicans, including former state representative Mike Beltran, compete in their primary the same day. These factors, combined with the broader statewide map favoring Republicans, have narrowed historical Democratic advantages and produced closely matched trader probabilities. Primary outcomes, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics through fall could widen or close the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Обсяг
$21,053Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting in Florida, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by courts for the November general election, shifted the 14th district’s partisan voting index to R+4 and prompted forecasters to rate the seat Lean Republican. Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge on August 18, while multiple Republicans, including former state representative Mike Beltran, compete in their primary the same day. These factors, combined with the broader statewide map favoring Republicans, have narrowed historical Democratic advantages and produced closely matched trader probabilities. Primary outcomes, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics through fall could widen or close the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$21,053Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent redistricting in Florida, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by courts for the November general election, shifted the 14th district’s partisan voting index to R+4 and prompted forecasters to rate the seat Lean Republican. Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge on August 18, while multiple Republicans, including former state representative Mike Beltran, compete in their primary the same day. These factors, combined with the broader statewide map favoring Republicans, have narrowed historical Democratic advantages and produced closely matched trader probabilities. Primary outcomes, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics through fall could widen or close the gap before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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