Trader consensus shows balanced probabilities across 66–75°F bins for Chicago’s September 26 high, driven by ensemble forecast spreads in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs. A weak surface high and modest warm-air advection from the southwest compete with increasing cloud cover and a subtle frontal boundary, keeping model solutions clustered near seasonal normals. Historical late-September variability and typical 2–4°F uncertainty ranges at 48-hour lead times further support the even distribution. New 00Z and 12Z model cycles expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these implied odds as observational data updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on September 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 26?
72-73°F 40%
70-71°F 27%
68-69°F 26%
74-75°F 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 26, 2026
59°F or below
3%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
40%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
7%
78°F or higher
6%
72-73°F 40%
70-71°F 27%
68-69°F 26%
74-75°F 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 26, 2026
59°F or below
$0 Обс.
3%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
5%
62-63°F
$0 Обс.
6%
64-65°F
$0 Обс.
5%
66-67°F
$0 Обс.
9%
68-69°F
$0 Обс.
26%
70-71°F
$0 Обс.
27%
72-73°F
$0 Обс.
40%
74-75°F
$0 Обс.
13%
76-77°F
$0 Обс.
7%
78°F or higher
$0 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows balanced probabilities across 66–75°F bins for Chicago’s September 26 high, driven by ensemble forecast spreads in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs. A weak surface high and modest warm-air advection from the southwest compete with increasing cloud cover and a subtle frontal boundary, keeping model solutions clustered near seasonal normals. Historical late-September variability and typical 2–4°F uncertainty ranges at 48-hour lead times further support the even distribution. New 00Z and 12Z model cycles expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these implied odds as observational data updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 24, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 24, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows balanced probabilities across 66–75°F bins for Chicago’s September 26 high, driven by ensemble forecast spreads in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs. A weak surface high and modest warm-air advection from the southwest compete with increasing cloud cover and a subtle frontal boundary, keeping model solutions clustered near seasonal normals. Historical late-September variability and typical 2–4°F uncertainty ranges at 48-hour lead times further support the even distribution. New 00Z and 12Z model cycles expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these implied odds as observational data updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 24, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47de9d...Trader consensus shows balanced probabilities across 66–75°F bins for Chicago’s September 26 high, driven by ensemble forecast spreads in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs. A weak surface high and modest warm-air advection from the southwest compete with increasing cloud cover and a subtle frontal boundary, keeping model solutions clustered near seasonal normals. Historical late-September variability and typical 2–4°F uncertainty ranges at 48-hour lead times further support the even distribution. New 00Z and 12Z model cycles expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these implied odds as observational data updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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