Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts point to a Friday low in the mid-50s for Chicago, yet the market shows nearly identical implied odds for sub-48°F versus 66°F-plus outcomes. This split arises from short-range model sensitivity to northeast flow strength, cloud cover modulating nocturnal cooling, and the precise timing of any high-pressure ridge or weak front. Persistent cool advection from recent days has kept daily minima in the 55–60°F range, but small shifts in wind or humidity could push the minimum several degrees lower or allow greater diurnal recovery. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could consolidate trader consensus around the central bins.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Chicago on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 25?
47°F or below 99%
66°F or higher 98%
56-57°F 40%
58-59°F 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 25, 2026
47°F or below
99%
48-49°F
38%
50-51°F
38%
52-53°F
39%
54-55°F
38%
56-57°F
40%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
38%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
38%
66°F or higher
98%
47°F or below 99%
66°F or higher 98%
56-57°F 40%
58-59°F 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 25, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Обс.
99%
48-49°F
$0 Обс.
38%
50-51°F
$0 Обс.
38%
52-53°F
$0 Обс.
39%
54-55°F
$0 Обс.
38%
56-57°F
$0 Обс.
40%
58-59°F
$0 Обс.
40%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
38%
62-63°F
$0 Обс.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Обс.
38%
66°F or higher
$0 Обс.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts point to a Friday low in the mid-50s for Chicago, yet the market shows nearly identical implied odds for sub-48°F versus 66°F-plus outcomes. This split arises from short-range model sensitivity to northeast flow strength, cloud cover modulating nocturnal cooling, and the precise timing of any high-pressure ridge or weak front. Persistent cool advection from recent days has kept daily minima in the 55–60°F range, but small shifts in wind or humidity could push the minimum several degrees lower or allow greater diurnal recovery. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could consolidate trader consensus around the central bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts point to a Friday low in the mid-50s for Chicago, yet the market shows nearly identical implied odds for sub-48°F versus 66°F-plus outcomes. This split arises from short-range model sensitivity to northeast flow strength, cloud cover modulating nocturnal cooling, and the precise timing of any high-pressure ridge or weak front. Persistent cool advection from recent days has kept daily minima in the 55–60°F range, but small shifts in wind or humidity could push the minimum several degrees lower or allow greater diurnal recovery. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could consolidate trader consensus around the central bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts point to a Friday low in the mid-50s for Chicago, yet the market shows nearly identical implied odds for sub-48°F versus 66°F-plus outcomes. This split arises from short-range model sensitivity to northeast flow strength, cloud cover modulating nocturnal cooling, and the precise timing of any high-pressure ridge or weak front. Persistent cool advection from recent days has kept daily minima in the 55–60°F range, but small shifts in wind or humidity could push the minimum several degrees lower or allow greater diurnal recovery. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could consolidate trader consensus around the central bins.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання