Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a high near 24–26°C for Tokyo on September 23, driven by northeasterly flow of cooler maritime air behind recent heavy rainfall and a passing frontal system. Persistent cloud cover and light rain chances will limit solar heating, keeping daytime maxima below the warmer 28–30°C expected on September 22. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24°C and 25°C because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, though small shifts in timing of any clearing or moisture could nudge the official JMA reading by 1°C. Historical late-September averages near 25°C provide context, with resolution hinging on the precise daily maximum at the Tokyo station. Updated model runs and the next JMA briefing will likely refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
24°C 36%
25°C 31%
26°C 15%
23°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 23, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
5%
23°C
11%
24°C
36%
25°C
31%
26°C
15%
27°C
8%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 36%
25°C 31%
26°C 15%
23°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 23, 2026
20°C or below
$240 Обс.
1%
21°C
$55 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$68 Обс.
5%
23°C
$410 Обс.
11%
24°C
$257 Обс.
36%
25°C
$1,029 Обс.
31%
26°C
$742 Обс.
15%
27°C
$366 Обс.
8%
28°C
$173 Обс.
2%
29°C
$155 Обс.
1%
30°C or higher
$344 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a high near 24–26°C for Tokyo on September 23, driven by northeasterly flow of cooler maritime air behind recent heavy rainfall and a passing frontal system. Persistent cloud cover and light rain chances will limit solar heating, keeping daytime maxima below the warmer 28–30°C expected on September 22. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24°C and 25°C because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, though small shifts in timing of any clearing or moisture could nudge the official JMA reading by 1°C. Historical late-September averages near 25°C provide context, with resolution hinging on the precise daily maximum at the Tokyo station. Updated model runs and the next JMA briefing will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,840Дата завершення
Sep 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a high near 24–26°C for Tokyo on September 23, driven by northeasterly flow of cooler maritime air behind recent heavy rainfall and a passing frontal system. Persistent cloud cover and light rain chances will limit solar heating, keeping daytime maxima below the warmer 28–30°C expected on September 22. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24°C and 25°C because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, though small shifts in timing of any clearing or moisture could nudge the official JMA reading by 1°C. Historical late-September averages near 25°C provide context, with resolution hinging on the precise daily maximum at the Tokyo station. Updated model runs and the next JMA briefing will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,840Дата завершення
Sep 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a high near 24–26°C for Tokyo on September 23, driven by northeasterly flow of cooler maritime air behind recent heavy rainfall and a passing frontal system. Persistent cloud cover and light rain chances will limit solar heating, keeping daytime maxima below the warmer 28–30°C expected on September 22. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24°C and 25°C because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, though small shifts in timing of any clearing or moisture could nudge the official JMA reading by 1°C. Historical late-September averages near 25°C provide context, with resolution hinging on the precise daily maximum at the Tokyo station. Updated model runs and the next JMA briefing will likely refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання