**Southerly winds shifting behind a cold front are the main driver keeping Wellington's September 23 maximum near 10–11 °C.** Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and international forecasts show a transition from northerly flow to cooler southerlies on the 22nd–23rd, with daytime highs forecast between 9–11 °C and a chance of showers that should clear by afternoon. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 11 °C (58 %) and 12 °C (24 %), while the 10 °C outcome at 15 % reflects residual model spread on exact timing of the clearance and wind strength. Historical September maxima average near 14 °C, so the current setup represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the frontal passage. Updated NWP runs and any late adjustments to the front's arrival will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
11°C 55%
12°C 24%
10°C 20%
13°C 3%
НОВЕ
$11,626 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,626 Обс.
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
3%
10°C
20%
11°C
55%
12°C
24%
13°C
3%
14°C
2%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 55%
12°C 24%
10°C 20%
13°C 3%
НОВЕ
$11,626 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,626 Обс.
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
$218 Обс.
<1%
6°C
$226 Обс.
<1%
7°C
$189 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$354 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$892 Обс.
3%
10°C
$1,637 Обс.
20%
11°C
$1,589 Обс.
55%
12°C
$3,866 Обс.
24%
13°C
$937 Обс.
3%
14°C
$558 Обс.
2%
15°C or higher
$1,160 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Southerly winds shifting behind a cold front are the main driver keeping Wellington's September 23 maximum near 10–11 °C.** Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and international forecasts show a transition from northerly flow to cooler southerlies on the 22nd–23rd, with daytime highs forecast between 9–11 °C and a chance of showers that should clear by afternoon. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 11 °C (58 %) and 12 °C (24 %), while the 10 °C outcome at 15 % reflects residual model spread on exact timing of the clearance and wind strength. Historical September maxima average near 14 °C, so the current setup represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the frontal passage. Updated NWP runs and any late adjustments to the front's arrival will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,626Дата завершення
Sep 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Southerly winds shifting behind a cold front are the main driver keeping Wellington's September 23 maximum near 10–11 °C.** Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and international forecasts show a transition from northerly flow to cooler southerlies on the 22nd–23rd, with daytime highs forecast between 9–11 °C and a chance of showers that should clear by afternoon. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 11 °C (58 %) and 12 °C (24 %), while the 10 °C outcome at 15 % reflects residual model spread on exact timing of the clearance and wind strength. Historical September maxima average near 14 °C, so the current setup represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the frontal passage. Updated NWP runs and any late adjustments to the front's arrival will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$11,626Дата завершення
Sep 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Southerly winds shifting behind a cold front are the main driver keeping Wellington's September 23 maximum near 10–11 °C.** Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and international forecasts show a transition from northerly flow to cooler southerlies on the 22nd–23rd, with daytime highs forecast between 9–11 °C and a chance of showers that should clear by afternoon. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 11 °C (58 %) and 12 °C (24 %), while the 10 °C outcome at 15 % reflects residual model spread on exact timing of the clearance and wind strength. Historical September maxima average near 14 °C, so the current setup represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the frontal passage. Updated NWP runs and any late adjustments to the front's arrival will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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