Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?
12°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$120,752 Обс.
$120,752 Обс.
Apr 15, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$120,752 Обс.
$120,752 Обс.
Apr 15, 2026
10°C or below
$4,994 Обс.
No
11°C
$7,284 Обс.
No
12°C
$12,585 Обс.
Yes
13°C
$4,752 Обс.
No
14°C
$3,924 Обс.
No
15°C
$10,982 Обс.
No
16°C
$33,383 Обс.
No
17°C
$26,373 Обс.
No
18°C
$12,612 Обс.
No
19°C
$905 Обс.
No
20°C or higher
$2,958 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Обсяг
$120,752Дата завершення
Apr 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$120,752Дата завершення
Apr 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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