Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Karachi on May 4?
Highest temperature in Karachi on May 4?
41°C or higher 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$70,842 Обс.
$70,842 Обс.
May 4, 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
Yes
41°C or higher 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$70,842 Обс.
$70,842 Обс.
May 4, 2026
31°C or below
$1,068 Обс.
No
32°C
$391 Обс.
No
33°C
$2,417 Обс.
No
34°C
$3,357 Обс.
No
35°C
$1,240 Обс.
No
36°C
$1,242 Обс.
No
37°C
$2,360 Обс.
No
38°C
$5,337 Обс.
No
39°C
$3,053 Обс.
No
40°C
$5,583 Обс.
No
41°C or higher
$44,794 Обс.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$70,842Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$70,842Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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