Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in NYC on May 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 4?
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$239,396 Обс.
$239,396 Обс.
May 4, 2026
61°F or below
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
Yes
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80°F or higher
No
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$239,396 Обс.
$239,396 Обс.
May 4, 2026
61°F or below
$7,409 Обс.
No
62-63°F
$1,280 Обс.
No
64-65°F
$11,251 Обс.
No
66-67°F
$9,720 Обс.
No
68-69°F
$9,169 Обс.
No
70-71°F
$54,076 Обс.
Yes
72-73°F
$93,221 Обс.
No
74-75°F
$18,288 Обс.
No
76-77°F
$16,815 Обс.
No
78-79°F
$6,087 Обс.
No
80°F or higher
$12,081 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$239,396Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$239,396Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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