Recent numerical weather model consensus and INMET observations point to a daily maximum near 28°C in São Paulo on August 5, 2026, as the dominant driver behind the 54% implied probability for that outcome. Above-average August temperatures across central Brazil, linked to warmer-than-normal steering patterns and reduced cloud cover, have elevated expectations above the 24°C climatological mean. Traders weigh the narrow spread among 27–29°C bins against historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 29°C this early in the dry season, while low probabilities for 30°C+ reflect limited intensification potential from current boundary-layer conditions. Updated model runs and official station data through the morning will refine resolution criteria based on the highest verified reading.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?
28°C 52%
27°C 25%
29°C 19%
30°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
25%
28°C
52%
29°C
19%
30°C
5%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 52%
27°C 25%
29°C 19%
30°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
$369 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$519 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$461 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$716 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$1,652 Обс.
3%
27°C
$1,564 Обс.
25%
28°C
$1,314 Обс.
52%
29°C
$997 Обс.
19%
30°C
$769 Обс.
5%
31°C
$544 Обс.
1%
32°C or higher
$1,036 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus and INMET observations point to a daily maximum near 28°C in São Paulo on August 5, 2026, as the dominant driver behind the 54% implied probability for that outcome. Above-average August temperatures across central Brazil, linked to warmer-than-normal steering patterns and reduced cloud cover, have elevated expectations above the 24°C climatological mean. Traders weigh the narrow spread among 27–29°C bins against historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 29°C this early in the dry season, while low probabilities for 30°C+ reflect limited intensification potential from current boundary-layer conditions. Updated model runs and official station data through the morning will refine resolution criteria based on the highest verified reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,206Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus and INMET observations point to a daily maximum near 28°C in São Paulo on August 5, 2026, as the dominant driver behind the 54% implied probability for that outcome. Above-average August temperatures across central Brazil, linked to warmer-than-normal steering patterns and reduced cloud cover, have elevated expectations above the 24°C climatological mean. Traders weigh the narrow spread among 27–29°C bins against historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 29°C this early in the dry season, while low probabilities for 30°C+ reflect limited intensification potential from current boundary-layer conditions. Updated model runs and official station data through the morning will refine resolution criteria based on the highest verified reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$9,206Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather model consensus and INMET observations point to a daily maximum near 28°C in São Paulo on August 5, 2026, as the dominant driver behind the 54% implied probability for that outcome. Above-average August temperatures across central Brazil, linked to warmer-than-normal steering patterns and reduced cloud cover, have elevated expectations above the 24°C climatological mean. Traders weigh the narrow spread among 27–29°C bins against historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 29°C this early in the dry season, while low probabilities for 30°C+ reflect limited intensification potential from current boundary-layer conditions. Updated model runs and official station data through the morning will refine resolution criteria based on the highest verified reading.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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