Traders are pricing 34–35°C as the most likely peak for Seoul-Incheon on August 5, with closely matched probabilities reflecting model spread in short-range guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles. Persistent subtropical high pressure and weak steering flow favor mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, promoting strong daytime insolation and limited mixing, while elevated humidity near 70–80% modestly caps maximum temperatures. Recent early-August observations of 32–34°C under similar synoptic patterns support this clustering, though small shifts in cloud cover or a passing weak trough could tip the outcome between the two leading brackets. Updated model runs and the next KMA short-range briefing remain the key near-term catalysts.