Traders see 27°C and 28°C as nearly even because current ensemble forecasts place Incheon’s overnight minimum right at the boundary between those values under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions. Model consensus shows modest radiative cooling limited by elevated humidity and light southerly flow, with slight differences in cloud-cover timing creating the narrow spread. Historical August minima near 23–25°C provide context, yet recent seasonal warmth has kept readings higher. The Korea Meteorological Administration and global model updates expected over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift the implied probabilities before resolution.