**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 34–36°C for Taipei’s August 11 peak temperature, reflecting uncertainty in afternoon thunderstorm timing and any lingering tropical moisture.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance projects 29–35°C under partly cloudy skies with occasional thundershowers, while ensemble guidance from global models shows a similar range centered near 34–36°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise arrival of convective cells, which can suppress peak readings by limiting insolation, versus clearer intervals that allow the urban heat island and subtropical high to push readings higher. Recent model runs highlight modest variability in boundary-layer moisture tied to regional tropical activity, keeping the 34–36°C outcomes nearly equiprobable until the final 24–48 hours of observations.