Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw maximum temperatures on August 24 clustering near 19–20°C amid partly cloudy skies and light showers, explaining the tight market spread between those two leading outcomes. Late-August climatology features declining solar insolation and increasing variability from passing Atlantic systems, which introduce uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Traders weigh official station measurements against these probabilistic spreads, with historical analogs indicating that similar setups often resolve in the 18–22°C range depending on exact steering flow and precipitation timing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
20°C 36%
19°C 36%
21°C 15%
18°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
5%
18°C
13%
19°C
36%
20°C
36%
21°C
15%
22°C
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 36%
19°C 36%
21°C 15%
18°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$5 Обс.
1%
16°C
$5 Обс.
1%
17°C
$20 Обс.
5%
18°C
$11 Обс.
13%
19°C
$40 Обс.
36%
20°C
$48 Обс.
36%
21°C
$10 Обс.
15%
22°C
$0 Обс.
3%
23°C
$10 Обс.
5%
24°C
$5 Обс.
4%
25°C or higher
$5 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw maximum temperatures on August 24 clustering near 19–20°C amid partly cloudy skies and light showers, explaining the tight market spread between those two leading outcomes. Late-August climatology features declining solar insolation and increasing variability from passing Atlantic systems, which introduce uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Traders weigh official station measurements against these probabilistic spreads, with historical analogs indicating that similar setups often resolve in the 18–22°C range depending on exact steering flow and precipitation timing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$160Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw maximum temperatures on August 24 clustering near 19–20°C amid partly cloudy skies and light showers, explaining the tight market spread between those two leading outcomes. Late-August climatology features declining solar insolation and increasing variability from passing Atlantic systems, which introduce uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Traders weigh official station measurements against these probabilistic spreads, with historical analogs indicating that similar setups often resolve in the 18–22°C range depending on exact steering flow and precipitation timing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$160Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw maximum temperatures on August 24 clustering near 19–20°C amid partly cloudy skies and light showers, explaining the tight market spread between those two leading outcomes. Late-August climatology features declining solar insolation and increasing variability from passing Atlantic systems, which introduce uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Traders weigh official station measurements against these probabilistic spreads, with historical analogs indicating that similar setups often resolve in the 18–22°C range depending on exact steering flow and precipitation timing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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