Wellington’s late-winter temperatures are shaped by frequent southerly airstreams and the city’s exposed coastal location, which typically keep daily maxima near the long-term August average of roughly 12–14 °C. Recent NIWA monitoring shows the month has featured cooler-than-average episodes tied to polar air outbreaks, reinforcing trader expectations that 21 August will remain within this narrow band. Current numerical guidance from MetService-linked and international models indicates a maximum of 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate northwest winds, producing the strong market concentration on those two outcomes. With the event only 48 hours away, any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind direction could still nudge the reading by 1 °C, but the present consensus supports the observed 88 % combined probability for 13 °C or 14 °C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 21?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?
14°C 54%
13°C 35%
15°C 8%
12°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 21, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
4%
13°C
35%
14°C
54%
15°C
8%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 54%
13°C 35%
15°C 8%
12°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 21, 2026
8°C or below
$261 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$318 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$160 Обс.
1%
11°C
$5 Обс.
3%
12°C
$175 Обс.
4%
13°C
$182 Обс.
35%
14°C
$328 Обс.
54%
15°C
$171 Обс.
8%
16°C
$5 Обс.
1%
17°C
$185 Обс.
<1%
18°C or higher
$144 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s late-winter temperatures are shaped by frequent southerly airstreams and the city’s exposed coastal location, which typically keep daily maxima near the long-term August average of roughly 12–14 °C. Recent NIWA monitoring shows the month has featured cooler-than-average episodes tied to polar air outbreaks, reinforcing trader expectations that 21 August will remain within this narrow band. Current numerical guidance from MetService-linked and international models indicates a maximum of 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate northwest winds, producing the strong market concentration on those two outcomes. With the event only 48 hours away, any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind direction could still nudge the reading by 1 °C, but the present consensus supports the observed 88 % combined probability for 13 °C or 14 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,935Дата завершення
Aug 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s late-winter temperatures are shaped by frequent southerly airstreams and the city’s exposed coastal location, which typically keep daily maxima near the long-term August average of roughly 12–14 °C. Recent NIWA monitoring shows the month has featured cooler-than-average episodes tied to polar air outbreaks, reinforcing trader expectations that 21 August will remain within this narrow band. Current numerical guidance from MetService-linked and international models indicates a maximum of 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate northwest winds, producing the strong market concentration on those two outcomes. With the event only 48 hours away, any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind direction could still nudge the reading by 1 °C, but the present consensus supports the observed 88 % combined probability for 13 °C or 14 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,935Дата завершення
Aug 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington’s late-winter temperatures are shaped by frequent southerly airstreams and the city’s exposed coastal location, which typically keep daily maxima near the long-term August average of roughly 12–14 °C. Recent NIWA monitoring shows the month has featured cooler-than-average episodes tied to polar air outbreaks, reinforcing trader expectations that 21 August will remain within this narrow band. Current numerical guidance from MetService-linked and international models indicates a maximum of 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate northwest winds, producing the strong market concentration on those two outcomes. With the event only 48 hours away, any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind direction could still nudge the reading by 1 °C, but the present consensus supports the observed 88 % combined probability for 13 °C or 14 °C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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