Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 4?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 4?
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$50,621 Обс.
$50,621 Обс.
May 4, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$50,621 Обс.
$50,621 Обс.
May 4, 2026
22°C or below
$482 Обс.
No
23°C
$758 Обс.
No
24°C
$3,236 Обс.
No
25°C
$5,223 Обс.
No
26°C
$3,948 Обс.
No
27°C
$5,620 Обс.
No
28°C
$5,854 Обс.
Yes
29°C
$5,986 Обс.
No
30°C
$7,381 Обс.
No
31°C
$6,028 Обс.
No
32°C or higher
$6,106 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$50,621Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$50,621Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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