Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have faced minimal primary opposition across the 13 seats in play, driving the market's overwhelming consensus that none will lose. Most established officeholders, including Jon Ossoff, Cory Booker, and Jeff Merkley, advanced unopposed or defeated low-profile challengers who failed to gain traction. Completed primaries confirm this pattern, with John Hickenlooper, Ed Markey, and Jack Reed securing victories despite occasional generational or ideological contests. Open-seat races in states such as Michigan and Minnesota further narrow the pool of vulnerable incumbents. Remaining contests, including Delaware on September 15, align with historical Senate primary dynamics where incumbents rarely face credible threats. A surprise upset in any final race or an unforeseen late entrant could alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given current filing deadlines and polling trends.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
$30,646 Обс.
$30,646 Обс.
0
100%
1
1%
$30,646 Обс.
$30,646 Обс.
0
$10,157 Обс.
100%
1
$2,180 Обс.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have faced minimal primary opposition across the 13 seats in play, driving the market's overwhelming consensus that none will lose. Most established officeholders, including Jon Ossoff, Cory Booker, and Jeff Merkley, advanced unopposed or defeated low-profile challengers who failed to gain traction. Completed primaries confirm this pattern, with John Hickenlooper, Ed Markey, and Jack Reed securing victories despite occasional generational or ideological contests. Open-seat races in states such as Michigan and Minnesota further narrow the pool of vulnerable incumbents. Remaining contests, including Delaware on September 15, align with historical Senate primary dynamics where incumbents rarely face credible threats. A surprise upset in any final race or an unforeseen late entrant could alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given current filing deadlines and polling trends.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Обсяг
$30,646Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have faced minimal primary opposition across the 13 seats in play, driving the market's overwhelming consensus that none will lose. Most established officeholders, including Jon Ossoff, Cory Booker, and Jeff Merkley, advanced unopposed or defeated low-profile challengers who failed to gain traction. Completed primaries confirm this pattern, with John Hickenlooper, Ed Markey, and Jack Reed securing victories despite occasional generational or ideological contests. Open-seat races in states such as Michigan and Minnesota further narrow the pool of vulnerable incumbents. Remaining contests, including Delaware on September 15, align with historical Senate primary dynamics where incumbents rarely face credible threats. A surprise upset in any final race or an unforeseen late entrant could alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given current filing deadlines and polling trends.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Обсяг
$30,646Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have faced minimal primary opposition across the 13 seats in play, driving the market's overwhelming consensus that none will lose. Most established officeholders, including Jon Ossoff, Cory Booker, and Jeff Merkley, advanced unopposed or defeated low-profile challengers who failed to gain traction. Completed primaries confirm this pattern, with John Hickenlooper, Ed Markey, and Jack Reed securing victories despite occasional generational or ideological contests. Open-seat races in states such as Michigan and Minnesota further narrow the pool of vulnerable incumbents. Remaining contests, including Delaware on September 15, align with historical Senate primary dynamics where incumbents rarely face credible threats. A surprise upset in any final race or an unforeseen late entrant could alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given current filing deadlines and polling trends.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
86%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
97%
Чи матиме Республіканська партія рівно 22 або 23 губернаторські посади після проміжних виборів 2026 року?
32%
Так
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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