**Trader consensus that exactly three Republican Senate incumbents will lose their 2026 primaries rests primarily on the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, both ousted by Trump-endorsed challengers amid intra-party tensions.** These outcomes, which ended long streaks of incumbent security, have been reinforced by additional primary results through late August showing no further upsets among remaining GOP senators seeking renomination. Most other incumbents, including those in states such as Alaska, Kansas, and Tennessee, advanced with minimal opposition or after consolidated support, consistent with historical patterns where Senate primaries rarely produce widespread defeats absent coordinated challenges or major scandals. With the primary calendar largely complete before the September 30 resolution window, few additional contests remain that could shift the count. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected loss in any final primaries or procedural disputes over whether an incumbent who did not file counts toward the total.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3 95.6%
2 4.6%
4 <1%
>4 <1%
$75,434 Обс.
$75,434 Обс.
2
5%
3
96%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
3 95.6%
2 4.6%
4 <1%
>4 <1%
$75,434 Обс.
$75,434 Обс.
2
$39,226 Обс.
5%
3
$16,999 Обс.
96%
4
$6,571 Обс.
<1%
>4
$4,094 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus that exactly three Republican Senate incumbents will lose their 2026 primaries rests primarily on the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, both ousted by Trump-endorsed challengers amid intra-party tensions.** These outcomes, which ended long streaks of incumbent security, have been reinforced by additional primary results through late August showing no further upsets among remaining GOP senators seeking renomination. Most other incumbents, including those in states such as Alaska, Kansas, and Tennessee, advanced with minimal opposition or after consolidated support, consistent with historical patterns where Senate primaries rarely produce widespread defeats absent coordinated challenges or major scandals. With the primary calendar largely complete before the September 30 resolution window, few additional contests remain that could shift the count. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected loss in any final primaries or procedural disputes over whether an incumbent who did not file counts toward the total.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$75,434Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus that exactly three Republican Senate incumbents will lose their 2026 primaries rests primarily on the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, both ousted by Trump-endorsed challengers amid intra-party tensions.** These outcomes, which ended long streaks of incumbent security, have been reinforced by additional primary results through late August showing no further upsets among remaining GOP senators seeking renomination. Most other incumbents, including those in states such as Alaska, Kansas, and Tennessee, advanced with minimal opposition or after consolidated support, consistent with historical patterns where Senate primaries rarely produce widespread defeats absent coordinated challenges or major scandals. With the primary calendar largely complete before the September 30 resolution window, few additional contests remain that could shift the count. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected loss in any final primaries or procedural disputes over whether an incumbent who did not file counts toward the total.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Обсяг
$75,434Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus that exactly three Republican Senate incumbents will lose their 2026 primaries rests primarily on the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, both ousted by Trump-endorsed challengers amid intra-party tensions.** These outcomes, which ended long streaks of incumbent security, have been reinforced by additional primary results through late August showing no further upsets among remaining GOP senators seeking renomination. Most other incumbents, including those in states such as Alaska, Kansas, and Tennessee, advanced with minimal opposition or after consolidated support, consistent with historical patterns where Senate primaries rarely produce widespread defeats absent coordinated challenges or major scandals. With the primary calendar largely complete before the September 30 resolution window, few additional contests remain that could shift the count. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected loss in any final primaries or procedural disputes over whether an incumbent who did not file counts toward the total.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
96%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
94%
Чи матиме Республіканська партія рівно 24 або 25 губернаторських посад після проміжних виборів 2026 року?
36%
Так
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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