A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$112,638,018 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
March 31
No
April 15
No
April 18
Yes
April 21
Yes
April 30
Yes
June 30
Yes
$112,638,018 Обс.
March 31
$376,672 Обс.
No
April 15
$7,833,258 Обс.
No
April 18
$98,599,882 Обс.
Yes
April 21
$695,526 Обс.
Yes
April 30
$4,369,571 Обс.
Yes
June 30
$763,110 Обс.
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$112,638,018Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Обсяг
$112,638,018Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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