The closely matched implied probabilities—41.4% for a lowest temperature of 36°C or higher versus 40.5% for 26°C or below—highlight substantial trader uncertainty ahead of the September 15 overnight minimum in Jeddah. Primary drivers include Red Sea sea-surface temperatures near 30–32°C that sustain high humidity and suppress radiative cooling, alongside variable wind patterns and potential cloud cover that could either enhance or limit overnight heat retention. Official forecasts from regional meteorological services and global models show divergence on exact timing of any coastal breeze or clearer skies, which historically produce September lows averaging 28–30°C. Resolution hinges on verified observational data, with any last-minute model updates likely to shift the narrow spread between these outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Jeddah on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Jeddah on September 15?
26°C or below 81%
31°C 48%
36°C or higher 41.4%
30°C 38%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
81%
27°C
17%
28°C
22%
29°C
22%
30°C
22%
31°C
26%
32°C
22%
33°C
21%
34°C
17%
35°C
17%
36°C or higher
41%
26°C or below 81%
31°C 48%
36°C or higher 41.4%
30°C 38%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
$10 Обс.
81%
27°C
$10 Обс.
17%
28°C
$0 Обс.
22%
29°C
$0 Обс.
22%
30°C
$3 Обс.
22%
31°C
$22 Обс.
26%
32°C
$0 Обс.
22%
33°C
$0 Обс.
21%
34°C
$10 Обс.
17%
35°C
$10 Обс.
17%
36°C or higher
$10 Обс.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched implied probabilities—41.4% for a lowest temperature of 36°C or higher versus 40.5% for 26°C or below—highlight substantial trader uncertainty ahead of the September 15 overnight minimum in Jeddah. Primary drivers include Red Sea sea-surface temperatures near 30–32°C that sustain high humidity and suppress radiative cooling, alongside variable wind patterns and potential cloud cover that could either enhance or limit overnight heat retention. Official forecasts from regional meteorological services and global models show divergence on exact timing of any coastal breeze or clearer skies, which historically produce September lows averaging 28–30°C. Resolution hinges on verified observational data, with any last-minute model updates likely to shift the narrow spread between these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$75Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched implied probabilities—41.4% for a lowest temperature of 36°C or higher versus 40.5% for 26°C or below—highlight substantial trader uncertainty ahead of the September 15 overnight minimum in Jeddah. Primary drivers include Red Sea sea-surface temperatures near 30–32°C that sustain high humidity and suppress radiative cooling, alongside variable wind patterns and potential cloud cover that could either enhance or limit overnight heat retention. Official forecasts from regional meteorological services and global models show divergence on exact timing of any coastal breeze or clearer skies, which historically produce September lows averaging 28–30°C. Resolution hinges on verified observational data, with any last-minute model updates likely to shift the narrow spread between these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$75Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched implied probabilities—41.4% for a lowest temperature of 36°C or higher versus 40.5% for 26°C or below—highlight substantial trader uncertainty ahead of the September 15 overnight minimum in Jeddah. Primary drivers include Red Sea sea-surface temperatures near 30–32°C that sustain high humidity and suppress radiative cooling, alongside variable wind patterns and potential cloud cover that could either enhance or limit overnight heat retention. Official forecasts from regional meteorological services and global models show divergence on exact timing of any coastal breeze or clearer skies, which historically produce September lows averaging 28–30°C. Resolution hinges on verified observational data, with any last-minute model updates likely to shift the narrow spread between these outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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