The dispersed market-implied odds, with 14°C leading at 33.5% and 15°C at 21.5%, reflect genuine forecast uncertainty for London's overnight minimum on September 20 amid typical late-summer variability. Official Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs highlight key variables including Atlantic air-mass advection, cloud-cover extent overnight, and light wind speeds that limit radiative cooling, all of which can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical September minima in central London average near 13°C, providing context for why probabilities cluster around 13–16°C while tail outcomes remain low. Updated model guidance and the final Met Office station reading will resolve the market as conditions evolve through the night.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in London on September 20?
Lowest temperature in London on September 20?
14°C 42%
15°C 20%
13°C 14%
16°C 10%
$7,185 Обс.
$7,185 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
14%
14°C
34%
15°C
20%
16°C
10%
17°C
5%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 42%
15°C 20%
13°C 14%
16°C 10%
$7,185 Обс.
$7,185 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
9°C or below
$31 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$31 Обс.
1%
11°C
$36 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$51 Обс.
3%
13°C
$1,850 Обс.
14%
14°C
$1,737 Обс.
34%
15°C
$2,187 Обс.
20%
16°C
$501 Обс.
10%
17°C
$211 Обс.
5%
18°C
$46 Обс.
<1%
19°C or higher
$503 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dispersed market-implied odds, with 14°C leading at 33.5% and 15°C at 21.5%, reflect genuine forecast uncertainty for London's overnight minimum on September 20 amid typical late-summer variability. Official Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs highlight key variables including Atlantic air-mass advection, cloud-cover extent overnight, and light wind speeds that limit radiative cooling, all of which can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical September minima in central London average near 13°C, providing context for why probabilities cluster around 13–16°C while tail outcomes remain low. Updated model guidance and the final Met Office station reading will resolve the market as conditions evolve through the night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,185Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dispersed market-implied odds, with 14°C leading at 33.5% and 15°C at 21.5%, reflect genuine forecast uncertainty for London's overnight minimum on September 20 amid typical late-summer variability. Official Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs highlight key variables including Atlantic air-mass advection, cloud-cover extent overnight, and light wind speeds that limit radiative cooling, all of which can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical September minima in central London average near 13°C, providing context for why probabilities cluster around 13–16°C while tail outcomes remain low. Updated model guidance and the final Met Office station reading will resolve the market as conditions evolve through the night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$7,185Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The dispersed market-implied odds, with 14°C leading at 33.5% and 15°C at 21.5%, reflect genuine forecast uncertainty for London's overnight minimum on September 20 amid typical late-summer variability. Official Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs highlight key variables including Atlantic air-mass advection, cloud-cover extent overnight, and light wind speeds that limit radiative cooling, all of which can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical September minima in central London average near 13°C, providing context for why probabilities cluster around 13–16°C while tail outcomes remain low. Updated model guidance and the final Met Office station reading will resolve the market as conditions evolve through the night.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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