**Ensemble forecasts from major models place Ankara's September 20 maximum near the 24–25°C threshold, creating the tight market split between those two outcomes.** Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and regional runs indicate partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and surface highs around 23–25°C under stable high pressure, consistent with late-September climatology for the Anatolian plateau. Minor differences in timing of peak insolation, afternoon cloud cover, or localized urban heat effects can shift the observed daily maximum by 1°C, explaining why 24°C edges 25°C in current trader positioning while 23°C remains a smaller tail risk. Updated model guidance tonight and early-morning observations will provide the final inputs before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Ankara on September 20?
Highest temperature in Ankara on September 20?
24°C 47%
25°C 40%
23°C 16%
26°C 2%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
16%
24°C
47%
25°C
40%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 47%
25°C 40%
23°C 16%
26°C 2%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
20°C or below
$220 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$140 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$1,285 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$1,333 Обс.
16%
24°C
$2,347 Обс.
47%
25°C
$2,576 Обс.
40%
26°C
$872 Обс.
2%
27°C
$185 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$110 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$125 Обс.
<1%
30°C or higher
$181 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ensemble forecasts from major models place Ankara's September 20 maximum near the 24–25°C threshold, creating the tight market split between those two outcomes.** Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and regional runs indicate partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and surface highs around 23–25°C under stable high pressure, consistent with late-September climatology for the Anatolian plateau. Minor differences in timing of peak insolation, afternoon cloud cover, or localized urban heat effects can shift the observed daily maximum by 1°C, explaining why 24°C edges 25°C in current trader positioning while 23°C remains a smaller tail risk. Updated model guidance tonight and early-morning observations will provide the final inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$9,374Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ensemble forecasts from major models place Ankara's September 20 maximum near the 24–25°C threshold, creating the tight market split between those two outcomes.** Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and regional runs indicate partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and surface highs around 23–25°C under stable high pressure, consistent with late-September climatology for the Anatolian plateau. Minor differences in timing of peak insolation, afternoon cloud cover, or localized urban heat effects can shift the observed daily maximum by 1°C, explaining why 24°C edges 25°C in current trader positioning while 23°C remains a smaller tail risk. Updated model guidance tonight and early-morning observations will provide the final inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$9,374Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Ensemble forecasts from major models place Ankara's September 20 maximum near the 24–25°C threshold, creating the tight market split between those two outcomes.** Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and regional runs indicate partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and surface highs around 23–25°C under stable high pressure, consistent with late-September climatology for the Anatolian plateau. Minor differences in timing of peak insolation, afternoon cloud cover, or localized urban heat effects can shift the observed daily maximum by 1°C, explaining why 24°C edges 25°C in current trader positioning while 23°C remains a smaller tail risk. Updated model guidance tonight and early-morning observations will provide the final inputs before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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