Recent PAGASA guidance and GFS model consensus indicate warmer-than-average conditions across central Luzon through September 23, driven by a weak southwest monsoon and an embedded low-pressure area east of Palawan that favors scattered afternoon thunderstorms over Manila on the 19th. These convective clouds and associated rainfall are the dominant near-term variables, as they limit surface solar heating and cap daily maxima near 30–32 °C despite elevated humidity and light winds. Model spread in timing and coverage of storms explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–33 °C, with clearer or later-developing convection favoring the higher end of that range. Updated official forecasts and satellite trends expected before resolution will further refine these outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on September 19?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 19?
32°C 26%
33°C 24%
31°C 21%
34°C 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 19, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
15%
30°C
12%
31°C
21%
32°C
26%
33°C
24%
34°C
19%
35°C
18%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 26%
33°C 24%
31°C 21%
34°C 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 19, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$0 Обс.
15%
30°C
$18 Обс.
12%
31°C
$0 Обс.
21%
32°C
$0 Обс.
26%
33°C
$0 Обс.
24%
34°C
$0 Обс.
19%
35°C
$0 Обс.
18%
36°C
$0 Обс.
2%
37°C
$111 Обс.
<1%
38°C or higher
$181 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA guidance and GFS model consensus indicate warmer-than-average conditions across central Luzon through September 23, driven by a weak southwest monsoon and an embedded low-pressure area east of Palawan that favors scattered afternoon thunderstorms over Manila on the 19th. These convective clouds and associated rainfall are the dominant near-term variables, as they limit surface solar heating and cap daily maxima near 30–32 °C despite elevated humidity and light winds. Model spread in timing and coverage of storms explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–33 °C, with clearer or later-developing convection favoring the higher end of that range. Updated official forecasts and satellite trends expected before resolution will further refine these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$310Дата завершення
Sep 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA guidance and GFS model consensus indicate warmer-than-average conditions across central Luzon through September 23, driven by a weak southwest monsoon and an embedded low-pressure area east of Palawan that favors scattered afternoon thunderstorms over Manila on the 19th. These convective clouds and associated rainfall are the dominant near-term variables, as they limit surface solar heating and cap daily maxima near 30–32 °C despite elevated humidity and light winds. Model spread in timing and coverage of storms explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–33 °C, with clearer or later-developing convection favoring the higher end of that range. Updated official forecasts and satellite trends expected before resolution will further refine these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$310Дата завершення
Sep 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA guidance and GFS model consensus indicate warmer-than-average conditions across central Luzon through September 23, driven by a weak southwest monsoon and an embedded low-pressure area east of Palawan that favors scattered afternoon thunderstorms over Manila on the 19th. These convective clouds and associated rainfall are the dominant near-term variables, as they limit surface solar heating and cap daily maxima near 30–32 °C despite elevated humidity and light winds. Model spread in timing and coverage of storms explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–33 °C, with clearer or later-developing convection favoring the higher end of that range. Updated official forecasts and satellite trends expected before resolution will further refine these outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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