Current forecast models from sources including GFS and national meteorological services project a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 8 in the 18–20°C range under mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds, consistent with a lingering warm spell featuring daytime highs near 34–35°C. This places the outcome comfortably below the 21°C threshold, aligning with the market-implied 89.5% probability. Historical climatology for early September shows average lows near 16.5–17°C, so the current guidance reflects above-normal overnight warmth without crossing into atypical territory. Model consensus remains stable with limited spread, and no significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover is expected to alter radiative cooling rates before resolution. Traders are thus weighting the strong scientific consensus from official agency guidance over any outlier warmer scenarios.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 8?
21°C or below 88%
22°C 19%
23°C 16%
25°C 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 8, 2026
21°C or below
88%
22°C
19%
23°C
16%
24°C
1%
25°C
16%
26°C
16%
27°C
15%
28°C
15%
29°C
8%
30°C
4%
31°C or higher
7%
21°C or below 88%
22°C 19%
23°C 16%
25°C 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 8, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Обс.
88%
22°C
$0 Обс.
19%
23°C
$0 Обс.
16%
24°C
$0 Обс.
1%
25°C
$0 Обс.
16%
26°C
$0 Обс.
16%
27°C
$0 Обс.
15%
28°C
$0 Обс.
15%
29°C
$0 Обс.
8%
30°C
$0 Обс.
4%
31°C or higher
$0 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and national meteorological services project a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 8 in the 18–20°C range under mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds, consistent with a lingering warm spell featuring daytime highs near 34–35°C. This places the outcome comfortably below the 21°C threshold, aligning with the market-implied 89.5% probability. Historical climatology for early September shows average lows near 16.5–17°C, so the current guidance reflects above-normal overnight warmth without crossing into atypical territory. Model consensus remains stable with limited spread, and no significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover is expected to alter radiative cooling rates before resolution. Traders are thus weighting the strong scientific consensus from official agency guidance over any outlier warmer scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and national meteorological services project a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 8 in the 18–20°C range under mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds, consistent with a lingering warm spell featuring daytime highs near 34–35°C. This places the outcome comfortably below the 21°C threshold, aligning with the market-implied 89.5% probability. Historical climatology for early September shows average lows near 16.5–17°C, so the current guidance reflects above-normal overnight warmth without crossing into atypical territory. Model consensus remains stable with limited spread, and no significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover is expected to alter radiative cooling rates before resolution. Traders are thus weighting the strong scientific consensus from official agency guidance over any outlier warmer scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including GFS and national meteorological services project a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 8 in the 18–20°C range under mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds, consistent with a lingering warm spell featuring daytime highs near 34–35°C. This places the outcome comfortably below the 21°C threshold, aligning with the market-implied 89.5% probability. Historical climatology for early September shows average lows near 16.5–17°C, so the current guidance reflects above-normal overnight warmth without crossing into atypical territory. Model consensus remains stable with limited spread, and no significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover is expected to alter radiative cooling rates before resolution. Traders are thus weighting the strong scientific consensus from official agency guidance over any outlier warmer scenarios.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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