Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series—1.1 in July, 1.2 in August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the clustered late-October odds for a 1.4+ release, reflecting Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on coding and agentic gains amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" model and open-weights plans signals continued momentum, while the tight probabilities around October 21–29 highlight uncertainty over exact timing amid ongoing safety testing and integration work. Traders weigh Meta's predictable scaling cadence against potential delays from regulatory scrutiny or resource shifts toward bigger systems. Key near-term catalysts include developer API updates and any earnings commentary on roadmap progress.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
October 3 26%
October 4 26%
October 7 26%
October 11 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
13%
October 2
14%
October 3
26%
October 4
26%
October 5
25%
October 6
14%
October 7
26%
October 8
25%
October 9
25%
October 10
25%
October 11
26%
October 12
26%
October 13
14%
October 14
14%
October 15
25%
October 16
14%
October 17
26%
October 18
14%
October 19
26%
October 20
25%
October 21
24%
October 22
26%
October 23
13%
October 24
26%
October 25
24%
October 26
25%
October 27
25%
October 28
25%
October 29
25%
October 30
25%
October 31
24%
No release by October 31
14%
October 3 26%
October 4 26%
October 7 26%
October 11 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
$0 Обс.
13%
October 2
$0 Обс.
14%
October 3
$0 Обс.
26%
October 4
$0 Обс.
26%
October 5
$0 Обс.
25%
October 6
$0 Обс.
14%
October 7
$0 Обс.
26%
October 8
$0 Обс.
25%
October 9
$0 Обс.
25%
October 10
$0 Обс.
25%
October 11
$0 Обс.
26%
October 12
$0 Обс.
26%
October 13
$0 Обс.
14%
October 14
$0 Обс.
14%
October 15
$0 Обс.
25%
October 16
$0 Обс.
14%
October 17
$0 Обс.
26%
October 18
$0 Обс.
14%
October 19
$0 Обс.
26%
October 20
$0 Обс.
25%
October 21
$0 Обс.
24%
October 22
$0 Обс.
26%
October 23
$0 Обс.
13%
October 24
$0 Обс.
26%
October 25
$0 Обс.
24%
October 26
$0 Обс.
25%
October 27
$0 Обс.
25%
October 28
$0 Обс.
25%
October 29
$0 Обс.
25%
October 30
$0 Обс.
25%
October 31
$0 Обс.
24%
No release by October 31
$0 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series—1.1 in July, 1.2 in August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the clustered late-October odds for a 1.4+ release, reflecting Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on coding and agentic gains amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" model and open-weights plans signals continued momentum, while the tight probabilities around October 21–29 highlight uncertainty over exact timing amid ongoing safety testing and integration work. Traders weigh Meta's predictable scaling cadence against potential delays from regulatory scrutiny or resource shifts toward bigger systems. Key near-term catalysts include developer API updates and any earnings commentary on roadmap progress.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series—1.1 in July, 1.2 in August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the clustered late-October odds for a 1.4+ release, reflecting Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on coding and agentic gains amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" model and open-weights plans signals continued momentum, while the tight probabilities around October 21–29 highlight uncertainty over exact timing amid ongoing safety testing and integration work. Traders weigh Meta's predictable scaling cadence against potential delays from regulatory scrutiny or resource shifts toward bigger systems. Key near-term catalysts include developer API updates and any earnings commentary on roadmap progress.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series—1.1 in July, 1.2 in August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the clustered late-October odds for a 1.4+ release, reflecting Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on coding and agentic gains amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" model and open-weights plans signals continued momentum, while the tight probabilities around October 21–29 highlight uncertainty over exact timing amid ongoing safety testing and integration work. Traders weigh Meta's predictable scaling cadence against potential delays from regulatory scrutiny or resource shifts toward bigger systems. Key near-term catalysts include developer API updates and any earnings commentary on roadmap progress.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання