**Anthropic’s Claude lineup dominates current leaderboards, with claude-fable-5.1-max holding the top spot on BenchLM, LM Market Cap, and multiple agentic and coding benchmarks as of September 22, 2026.** Its recent release established strong performance in frontier reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and multimodal work, creating the market’s tight 43% implied probability. The September 22 launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 on many workloads at roughly 40% lower cost while improving safety and output speed, adds near-term upside for related variants but has not yet displaced the Fable leader. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra remains the primary challenger at #2 across several indices, sustaining the 47% “Other” probability amid rapid model iteration and leaderboard volatility heading into early October resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBest AI model on October 5?
Best AI model on October 5?
Other 47%
claude-fable-5.1-max 43%
claude-opus-5-high 8%
claude-opus-4-6-high 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 5, 2026
Other
47%
claude-fable-5.1-max
43%
claude-opus-5-high
8%
claude-opus-4-6-high
7%
claude-opus-5-max
7%
Other 47%
claude-fable-5.1-max 43%
claude-opus-5-high 8%
claude-opus-4-6-high 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 5, 2026
Other
$106 Обс.
47%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$118 Обс.
43%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 Обс.
8%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$30 Обс.
7%
claude-opus-5-max
$32 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic’s Claude lineup dominates current leaderboards, with claude-fable-5.1-max holding the top spot on BenchLM, LM Market Cap, and multiple agentic and coding benchmarks as of September 22, 2026.** Its recent release established strong performance in frontier reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and multimodal work, creating the market’s tight 43% implied probability. The September 22 launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 on many workloads at roughly 40% lower cost while improving safety and output speed, adds near-term upside for related variants but has not yet displaced the Fable leader. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra remains the primary challenger at #2 across several indices, sustaining the 47% “Other” probability amid rapid model iteration and leaderboard volatility heading into early October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Обсяг
$285Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic’s Claude lineup dominates current leaderboards, with claude-fable-5.1-max holding the top spot on BenchLM, LM Market Cap, and multiple agentic and coding benchmarks as of September 22, 2026.** Its recent release established strong performance in frontier reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and multimodal work, creating the market’s tight 43% implied probability. The September 22 launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 on many workloads at roughly 40% lower cost while improving safety and output speed, adds near-term upside for related variants but has not yet displaced the Fable leader. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra remains the primary challenger at #2 across several indices, sustaining the 47% “Other” probability amid rapid model iteration and leaderboard volatility heading into early October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$285Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic’s Claude lineup dominates current leaderboards, with claude-fable-5.1-max holding the top spot on BenchLM, LM Market Cap, and multiple agentic and coding benchmarks as of September 22, 2026.** Its recent release established strong performance in frontier reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and multimodal work, creating the market’s tight 43% implied probability. The September 22 launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 on many workloads at roughly 40% lower cost while improving safety and output speed, adds near-term upside for related variants but has not yet displaced the Fable leader. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra remains the primary challenger at #2 across several indices, sustaining the 47% “Other” probability amid rapid model iteration and leaderboard volatility heading into early October resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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