The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Genial showing Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, Márcio França, and Guilherme Derrite clustered near the top amid a field of over a dozen registered candidates. Vote fragmentation on the right—among Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Ricardo Salles (Novo), and others—combined with center-left options keeps second-place probabilities tightly bunched, as no single contender has consolidated enough support to pull ahead decisively. Official candidacies filed in July and August, alongside ongoing debates over security policy and economic priorities, have sustained this uncertainty without major shifts in the past month. Events that could create separation include further candidate withdrawals, targeted endorsements from state or national figures ahead of the October 4 vote, or polling surges tied to specific campaign events in key regions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSimone Tebet 45%
Marina Silva 25%
Weller Gonçalves 25%
Maíra de Souza 25%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
45%
Marina Silva
25%
Weller Gonçalves
25%
Maíra de Souza
25%
Geraldo Rufino
24%
Salles
23%
William Teixeira
21%
Marcio Alves
22%
Petter Maahs
18%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
18%
Ednelson Cesaretti
17%
André do Prado
17%
Guilherme Derrite
21%
Soninha Francine
40%
Simone Tebet 45%
Marina Silva 25%
Weller Gonçalves 25%
Maíra de Souza 25%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
$38 Обс.
45%
Marina Silva
$27 Обс.
25%
Weller Gonçalves
$27 Обс.
25%
Maíra de Souza
$27 Обс.
25%
Geraldo Rufino
$27 Обс.
24%
Salles
$27 Обс.
23%
William Teixeira
$78 Обс.
21%
Marcio Alves
$58 Обс.
22%
Petter Maahs
$27 Обс.
18%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$27 Обс.
18%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$49 Обс.
17%
André do Prado
$38 Обс.
17%
Guilherme Derrite
$59 Обс.
21%
Soninha Francine
$59 Обс.
40%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Genial showing Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, Márcio França, and Guilherme Derrite clustered near the top amid a field of over a dozen registered candidates. Vote fragmentation on the right—among Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Ricardo Salles (Novo), and others—combined with center-left options keeps second-place probabilities tightly bunched, as no single contender has consolidated enough support to pull ahead decisively. Official candidacies filed in July and August, alongside ongoing debates over security policy and economic priorities, have sustained this uncertainty without major shifts in the past month. Events that could create separation include further candidate withdrawals, targeted endorsements from state or national figures ahead of the October 4 vote, or polling surges tied to specific campaign events in key regions.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Обсяг
$501Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Genial showing Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, Márcio França, and Guilherme Derrite clustered near the top amid a field of over a dozen registered candidates. Vote fragmentation on the right—among Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Ricardo Salles (Novo), and others—combined with center-left options keeps second-place probabilities tightly bunched, as no single contender has consolidated enough support to pull ahead decisively. Official candidacies filed in July and August, alongside ongoing debates over security policy and economic priorities, have sustained this uncertainty without major shifts in the past month. Events that could create separation include further candidate withdrawals, targeted endorsements from state or national figures ahead of the October 4 vote, or polling surges tied to specific campaign events in key regions.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$501Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Genial showing Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, Márcio França, and Guilherme Derrite clustered near the top amid a field of over a dozen registered candidates. Vote fragmentation on the right—among Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Ricardo Salles (Novo), and others—combined with center-left options keeps second-place probabilities tightly bunched, as no single contender has consolidated enough support to pull ahead decisively. Official candidacies filed in July and August, alongside ongoing debates over security policy and economic priorities, have sustained this uncertainty without major shifts in the past month. Events that could create separation include further candidate withdrawals, targeted endorsements from state or national figures ahead of the October 4 vote, or polling surges tied to specific campaign events in key regions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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