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Політика·Уотсон проти Республіканського національного комітету

SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?

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Політика·Уотсон проти Республіканського національного комітету

SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?

81% шанс
Polymarket

$35,332 Обс.

81% шанс
Polymarket

$35,332 Обс.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Supreme Court oral arguments on March 23 in Watson v. Republican National Committee revealed strong skepticism among conservative justices toward Mississippi's law permitting mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day but received up to five days later, interpreting federal election law as requiring receipt by close of polls. Justices like Alito emphasized "Election Day" as a fixed deadline, not a grace period, fueling trader consensus at 81% implied probability for SCOTUS barring such practices nationwide. Election officials in 14 states and D.C. warn of potential midterm disruptions, while no decision has issued yet, with ruling anticipated before November contests amid ongoing challenges to extended counting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$35,332
Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Supreme Court oral arguments on March 23 in Watson v. Republican National Committee revealed strong skepticism among conservative justices toward Mississippi's law permitting mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day but received up to five days later, interpreting federal election law as requiring receipt by close of polls. Justices like Alito emphasized "Election Day" as a fixed deadline, not a grace period, fueling trader consensus at 81% implied probability for SCOTUS barring such practices nationwide. Election officials in 14 states and D.C. warn of potential midterm disruptions, while no decision has issued yet, with ruling anticipated before November contests amid ongoing challenges to extended counting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$35,332
Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 81% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 81¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 81%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?» згенерував $35.3K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 24, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?» — 81% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 81% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.