**No country has signaled or taken steps toward formal withdrawal from BRICS in 2026, supporting the 93.8% implied probability for that outcome.** The bloc has instead continued its expansion trajectory, with Indonesia joining as a full member in early 2025 and official listings maintaining 11 members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia in ambiguous status) plus a partner-country tier. Over 30 nations have applied or expressed interest in membership or partnership ahead of the September 12–13 New Delhi summit under India’s chairmanship. Internal divergences on geopolitics and expansion have surfaced—such as the May 2026 foreign ministers’ meeting ending without a joint statement—but these have not produced exit threats or formal denunciations. Structural incentives, including access to the New Development Bank and platforms for non-Western economic coordination, remain intact with no precedent for departures by sitting members.