Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have advanced a phased Lebanese Armed Forces plan to establish state control over weapons south of the Litani River, with reported confiscations in designated pilot zones through September 2026. A U.S.-brokered June framework agreement ties any Israeli withdrawal to verified Hezbollah disarmament, yet Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem has repeatedly rejected the linkage as unacceptable and warned against enforcement measures that could spark internal conflict. Israeli officials assess limited LAF progress and possible coordination with Hezbollah, while U.S.-mediated talks continue with a planned October round in Rome. Market pricing reflects these barriers, as resolution hinges on an official Hezbollah leadership announcement committing to relinquish military capabilities in Lebanon.

Apr 25 2026

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a

April 30 rises to 4%4%

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the

Apr 23 2026

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to

April 30 dips to 0%4%

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %

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