Ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah and the incremental nature of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement explain the 92.5% implied probability against normalization before 2027. That accord establishes pilot zones for limited Israeli withdrawals and Lebanese army deployment in exchange for verified Hezbollah disarmament, but it explicitly stops short of a peace treaty or diplomatic relations. Lebanese officials have framed it as a non-aggression process to restore sovereignty, not normalization, while Hezbollah rejects the deal and continues operations that prompt Israeli strikes and sustained presence in southern Lebanon, including recent actions around the Ali al-Taher ridge. Subsequent Rome talks through August have advanced technical details on monitoring and additional zones at a measured pace amid reported deadlocks, with full bilateral recognition remaining contingent on broader disarmament milestones unlikely to conclude in the narrow remaining window.