Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP, faces ongoing judicial pressure including a May 2026 court ruling that annulled his 2023 leadership election and ousted him from the party chairmanship, alongside related probes into congress irregularities that led to arrests of other CHP members and mayors. Despite these developments and prior investigations into his statements, no active arrest warrant or detention proceedings targeting Özel himself have materialized in recent weeks. Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no arrest by June 30 because Turkish authorities have so far pursued party-level legal actions and targeted lower-profile figures rather than detaining the prominent opposition leader on short notice. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include rapid escalation through new charges tied to ongoing CHP disputes or public statements, though such moves would represent a notable departure from the current pattern of measured judicial steps against the party.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоÖzgür Özel arrested by June 30?
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30?
$29,327 Обс.
$29,327 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$29,327 Обс.
$29,327 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP, faces ongoing judicial pressure including a May 2026 court ruling that annulled his 2023 leadership election and ousted him from the party chairmanship, alongside related probes into congress irregularities that led to arrests of other CHP members and mayors. Despite these developments and prior investigations into his statements, no active arrest warrant or detention proceedings targeting Özel himself have materialized in recent weeks. Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no arrest by June 30 because Turkish authorities have so far pursued party-level legal actions and targeted lower-profile figures rather than detaining the prominent opposition leader on short notice. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include rapid escalation through new charges tied to ongoing CHP disputes or public statements, though such moves would represent a notable departure from the current pattern of measured judicial steps against the party.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$29,327Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP, faces ongoing judicial pressure including a May 2026 court ruling that annulled his 2023 leadership election and ousted him from the party chairmanship, alongside related probes into congress irregularities that led to arrests of other CHP members and mayors. Despite these developments and prior investigations into his statements, no active arrest warrant or detention proceedings targeting Özel himself have materialized in recent weeks. Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no arrest by June 30 because Turkish authorities have so far pursued party-level legal actions and targeted lower-profile figures rather than detaining the prominent opposition leader on short notice. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include rapid escalation through new charges tied to ongoing CHP disputes or public statements, though such moves would represent a notable departure from the current pattern of measured judicial steps against the party.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$29,327Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP, faces ongoing judicial pressure including a May 2026 court ruling that annulled his 2023 leadership election and ousted him from the party chairmanship, alongside related probes into congress irregularities that led to arrests of other CHP members and mayors. Despite these developments and prior investigations into his statements, no active arrest warrant or detention proceedings targeting Özel himself have materialized in recent weeks. Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no arrest by June 30 because Turkish authorities have so far pursued party-level legal actions and targeted lower-profile figures rather than detaining the prominent opposition leader on short notice. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include rapid escalation through new charges tied to ongoing CHP disputes or public statements, though such moves would represent a notable departure from the current pattern of measured judicial steps against the party.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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