Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, along with activist Mahmoud Khalil, due to ongoing congressional oversight, potential contempt proceedings, and immigration enforcement actions. These figures draw attention from probes into prior official conduct, pandemic-related testimony, and protest-related detentions, with qualifying arrests defined as physical custody by law enforcement by December 31, 2026. Broader context includes active DOJ investigations into other public figures and scheduled hearings that could generate new charges or resolutions. Low probabilities for most listed individuals reflect the high evidentiary and procedural barriers to arrest in the remaining months, while any late-breaking indictments or court rulings remain the primary variables that could alter positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$417,657 Обс.
Anthony Fauci
9%
John Brennan
20%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
13%
Adam Schiff
4%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
17%
James Clapper
12%
Letitia James
3%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
8%
Susan Rice
10%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
1%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
7%
Kash Patel
1%
Brandon Johnson
10%
Lisa Cook
3%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
1%
$417,657 Обс.
Anthony Fauci
$165,483 Обс.
9%
John Brennan
$22,822 Обс.
20%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$23,830 Обс.
13%
Adam Schiff
$17,036 Обс.
4%
Barack Obama
$29,681 Обс.
2%
James Comey
$10,841 Обс.
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,385 Обс.
17%
James Clapper
$8,391 Обс.
12%
Letitia James
$3,637 Обс.
3%
Hillary Clinton
$26,360 Обс.
2%
Bill Clinton
$2,889 Обс.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,411 Обс.
8%
Susan Rice
$304 Обс.
10%
Candace Owens
$268 Обс.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$39,435 Обс.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,949 Обс.
5%
John Kerry
$503 Обс.
1%
Pam Bondi
$2,189 Обс.
2%
Tom Homan
$41,914 Обс.
7%
Kash Patel
$607 Обс.
1%
Brandon Johnson
$3,290 Обс.
10%
Lisa Cook
$4,042 Обс.
3%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Обс.
11%
Joe Biden
$7,597 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, along with activist Mahmoud Khalil, due to ongoing congressional oversight, potential contempt proceedings, and immigration enforcement actions. These figures draw attention from probes into prior official conduct, pandemic-related testimony, and protest-related detentions, with qualifying arrests defined as physical custody by law enforcement by December 31, 2026. Broader context includes active DOJ investigations into other public figures and scheduled hearings that could generate new charges or resolutions. Low probabilities for most listed individuals reflect the high evidentiary and procedural barriers to arrest in the remaining months, while any late-breaking indictments or court rulings remain the primary variables that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$417,657Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, along with activist Mahmoud Khalil, due to ongoing congressional oversight, potential contempt proceedings, and immigration enforcement actions. These figures draw attention from probes into prior official conduct, pandemic-related testimony, and protest-related detentions, with qualifying arrests defined as physical custody by law enforcement by December 31, 2026. Broader context includes active DOJ investigations into other public figures and scheduled hearings that could generate new charges or resolutions. Low probabilities for most listed individuals reflect the high evidentiary and procedural barriers to arrest in the remaining months, while any late-breaking indictments or court rulings remain the primary variables that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$417,657Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, along with activist Mahmoud Khalil, due to ongoing congressional oversight, potential contempt proceedings, and immigration enforcement actions. These figures draw attention from probes into prior official conduct, pandemic-related testimony, and protest-related detentions, with qualifying arrests defined as physical custody by law enforcement by December 31, 2026. Broader context includes active DOJ investigations into other public figures and scheduled hearings that could generate new charges or resolutions. Low probabilities for most listed individuals reflect the high evidentiary and procedural barriers to arrest in the remaining months, while any late-breaking indictments or court rulings remain the primary variables that could alter positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання