The district's partisan composition and long-serving Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. California’s 18th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Lofgren’s 2024 reelection with over 64 percent of the vote, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the top-two primary alongside a single Republican entrant, with no evidence of a viable challenge emerging. Historical base rates for incumbent retention in similar districts and the absence of recent polling shifts or major events support the current pricing, though a national political wave or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could still alter the outcome before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-18 House Election Winner
CA-18 House Election Winner
$35,239 KL.
$35,239 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
4%
$35,239 KL.
$35,239 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,690 KL.
93%
Republican Party
$18,548 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's partisan composition and long-serving Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. California’s 18th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Lofgren’s 2024 reelection with over 64 percent of the vote, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the top-two primary alongside a single Republican entrant, with no evidence of a viable challenge emerging. Historical base rates for incumbent retention in similar districts and the absence of recent polling shifts or major events support the current pricing, though a national political wave or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$35,239Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's partisan composition and long-serving Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. California’s 18th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Lofgren’s 2024 reelection with over 64 percent of the vote, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the top-two primary alongside a single Republican entrant, with no evidence of a viable challenge emerging. Historical base rates for incumbent retention in similar districts and the absence of recent polling shifts or major events support the current pricing, though a national political wave or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$35,239Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's partisan composition and long-serving Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. California’s 18th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Lofgren’s 2024 reelection with over 64 percent of the vote, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the top-two primary alongside a single Republican entrant, with no evidence of a viable challenge emerging. Historical base rates for incumbent retention in similar districts and the absence of recent polling shifts or major events support the current pricing, though a national political wave or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could still alter the outcome before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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