Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023—combined with resilient May employment gains of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With inflation well above the 2% objective and the labor market showing no signs of meaningful softening, market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus for no policy change, consistent with the Fed’s April decision and recent minutes signaling limited near-term adjustments. This positioning aligns with forward-looking indicators pointing to a prolonged pause through year-end. The primary risk to this view would be substantially softer June CPI or employment figures released in early July that shift the inflation or growth trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 2.9%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 2.3%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản 1.8%
$10,075,213 KL.
$10,075,213 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
2%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
2%
Không thay đổi
94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
3%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 2.9%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 2.3%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản 1.8%
$10,075,213 KL.
$10,075,213 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$1,504,581 KL.
2%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$1,125,704 KL.
2%
Không thay đổi
$1,698,744 KL.
94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$4,161,462 KL.
3%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$1,585,026 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023—combined with resilient May employment gains of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With inflation well above the 2% objective and the labor market showing no signs of meaningful softening, market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus for no policy change, consistent with the Fed’s April decision and recent minutes signaling limited near-term adjustments. This positioning aligns with forward-looking indicators pointing to a prolonged pause through year-end. The primary risk to this view would be substantially softer June CPI or employment figures released in early July that shift the inflation or growth trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,075,213Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023—combined with resilient May employment gains of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With inflation well above the 2% objective and the labor market showing no signs of meaningful softening, market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus for no policy change, consistent with the Fed’s April decision and recent minutes signaling limited near-term adjustments. This positioning aligns with forward-looking indicators pointing to a prolonged pause through year-end. The primary risk to this view would be substantially softer June CPI or employment figures released in early July that shift the inflation or growth trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$10,075,213Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023—combined with resilient May employment gains of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With inflation well above the 2% objective and the labor market showing no signs of meaningful softening, market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus for no policy change, consistent with the Fed’s April decision and recent minutes signaling limited near-term adjustments. This positioning aligns with forward-looking indicators pointing to a prolonged pause through year-end. The primary risk to this view would be substantially softer June CPI or employment figures released in early July that shift the inflation or growth trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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