**Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored market-implied odds at 70.5% for no change and 26.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting.** July 2026 CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with energy prices contributing to the print, while core inflation held at 2.5%; the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% in July amid stable payroll trends. These data points reinforced the hawkish June 2026 dot plot, in which roughly half of participants projected at least one rate increase by year-end under new Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach. With the September meeting still ahead, traders price only minimal odds of easing, reflecting the Fed’s current policy stance and limited evidence of cooling price pressures sufficient to justify cuts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,018,700 KL.
$1,018,700 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,018,700 KL.
$1,018,700 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$174,005 KL.
1%
25 bps decrease
$359,820 KL.
3%
No change
$187,016 KL.
71%
25 bps increase
$178,671 KL.
27%
50+ bps increase
$119,188 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored market-implied odds at 70.5% for no change and 26.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting.** July 2026 CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with energy prices contributing to the print, while core inflation held at 2.5%; the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% in July amid stable payroll trends. These data points reinforced the hawkish June 2026 dot plot, in which roughly half of participants projected at least one rate increase by year-end under new Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach. With the September meeting still ahead, traders price only minimal odds of easing, reflecting the Fed’s current policy stance and limited evidence of cooling price pressures sufficient to justify cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,018,700Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored market-implied odds at 70.5% for no change and 26.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting.** July 2026 CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with energy prices contributing to the print, while core inflation held at 2.5%; the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% in July amid stable payroll trends. These data points reinforced the hawkish June 2026 dot plot, in which roughly half of participants projected at least one rate increase by year-end under new Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach. With the September meeting still ahead, traders price only minimal odds of easing, reflecting the Fed’s current policy stance and limited evidence of cooling price pressures sufficient to justify cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$1,018,700Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored market-implied odds at 70.5% for no change and 26.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting.** July 2026 CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with energy prices contributing to the print, while core inflation held at 2.5%; the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% in July amid stable payroll trends. These data points reinforced the hawkish June 2026 dot plot, in which roughly half of participants projected at least one rate increase by year-end under new Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach. With the September meeting still ahead, traders price only minimal odds of easing, reflecting the Fed’s current policy stance and limited evidence of cooling price pressures sufficient to justify cuts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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