Recent forecasts from multiple models project Madrid's September 25 high near 34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or frontal passages. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 24.4°C yet aligns with the all-time record of 35°C set in 1983, explaining why traders assign the highest implied probability to 35°C while still pricing meaningful chances for 34°C or 36°C. Short-range model consensus shows limited variability in the 48-hour window, with minimal precipitation risk supporting the current market positioning ahead of final AEMET updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on September 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 25?
35°C 65%
34°C 30%
36°C 21%
33°C 18%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 25, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
6%
33°C
18%
34°C
30%
35°C
64%
36°C
21%
37°C
9%
38°C
2%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 65%
34°C 30%
36°C 21%
33°C 18%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 25, 2026
30°C or below
$19 KL.
<1%
31°C
$0 KL.
4%
32°C
$0 KL.
6%
33°C
$0 KL.
18%
34°C
$0 KL.
30%
35°C
$62 KL.
64%
36°C
$0 KL.
21%
37°C
$4 KL.
9%
38°C
$0 KL.
2%
39°C
$0 KL.
2%
40°C or higher
$0 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Madrid's September 25 high near 34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or frontal passages. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 24.4°C yet aligns with the all-time record of 35°C set in 1983, explaining why traders assign the highest implied probability to 35°C while still pricing meaningful chances for 34°C or 36°C. Short-range model consensus shows limited variability in the 48-hour window, with minimal precipitation risk supporting the current market positioning ahead of final AEMET updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$86Ngày kết thúc
Sep 25, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Madrid's September 25 high near 34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or frontal passages. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 24.4°C yet aligns with the all-time record of 35°C set in 1983, explaining why traders assign the highest implied probability to 35°C while still pricing meaningful chances for 34°C or 36°C. Short-range model consensus shows limited variability in the 48-hour window, with minimal precipitation risk supporting the current market positioning ahead of final AEMET updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$86Ngày kết thúc
Sep 25, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models project Madrid's September 25 high near 34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or frontal passages. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 24.4°C yet aligns with the all-time record of 35°C set in 1983, explaining why traders assign the highest implied probability to 35°C while still pricing meaningful chances for 34°C or 36°C. Short-range model consensus shows limited variability in the 48-hour window, with minimal precipitation risk supporting the current market positioning ahead of final AEMET updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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