Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 election shows the reunified Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) projected at 6-8 seats, equivalent to roughly 5-7% of the national vote, while Ra'am runs separately at 4-6 seats. This distribution keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered because Arab-sector turnout remains variable and the alliance's consolidation of support has not yet produced a clear breakout. Final candidate list submissions and bloc competition from Zionist parties add further uncertainty, as modest shifts in participation or campaign momentum could push results below 4.5% or above 7.5%. Upcoming polls and turnout indicators in the Arab community represent the main near-term catalysts that could widen the spread among outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật7.5%+ 29%
4.5-5.5% 23%
<4.5% 19%
6.5-7.5% 19%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
19%
4.5-5.5%
23%
5.5-6.5%
38%
6.5-7.5%
19%
7.5%+
29%
7.5%+ 29%
4.5-5.5% 23%
<4.5% 19%
6.5-7.5% 19%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
$110 KL.
19%
4.5-5.5%
$20 KL.
23%
5.5-6.5%
$110 KL.
38%
6.5-7.5%
$20 KL.
19%
7.5%+
$39 KL.
29%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 election shows the reunified Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) projected at 6-8 seats, equivalent to roughly 5-7% of the national vote, while Ra'am runs separately at 4-6 seats. This distribution keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered because Arab-sector turnout remains variable and the alliance's consolidation of support has not yet produced a clear breakout. Final candidate list submissions and bloc competition from Zionist parties add further uncertainty, as modest shifts in participation or campaign momentum could push results below 4.5% or above 7.5%. Upcoming polls and turnout indicators in the Arab community represent the main near-term catalysts that could widen the spread among outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$300Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 election shows the reunified Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) projected at 6-8 seats, equivalent to roughly 5-7% of the national vote, while Ra'am runs separately at 4-6 seats. This distribution keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered because Arab-sector turnout remains variable and the alliance's consolidation of support has not yet produced a clear breakout. Final candidate list submissions and bloc competition from Zionist parties add further uncertainty, as modest shifts in participation or campaign momentum could push results below 4.5% or above 7.5%. Upcoming polls and turnout indicators in the Arab community represent the main near-term catalysts that could widen the spread among outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Khối lượng
$300Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 election shows the reunified Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) projected at 6-8 seats, equivalent to roughly 5-7% of the national vote, while Ra'am runs separately at 4-6 seats. This distribution keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered because Arab-sector turnout remains variable and the alliance's consolidation of support has not yet produced a clear breakout. Final candidate list submissions and bloc competition from Zionist parties add further uncertainty, as modest shifts in participation or campaign momentum could push results below 4.5% or above 7.5%. Upcoming polls and turnout indicators in the Arab community represent the main near-term catalysts that could widen the spread among outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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