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icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Địa Chính Trị·Iran Ngừng Bắn

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Địa Chính Trị·Iran Ngừng Bắn

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$8,448,735 KL.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$8,448,735 KL.

Polymarket

September 30

$261,314 KL.

1%

December 31

$225,628 KL.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement signed in late June 2026 established pilot zones for limited Israeli withdrawals from two small areas in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming security responsibility there as an initial step. Full or phased Israeli redeployment remains conditioned on verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state groups by Lebanese forces, without a fixed timetable, as outlined in the accompanying security annex. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated that the security zone will be maintained until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, while Hezbollah has rejected the terms and demanded unconditional withdrawal. Subsequent implementation of even the pilot areas has faced delays tied to Lebanese army preparation and verification processes. No major new military or diplomatic shifts have occurred since the June accord, leaving trader assessments focused on the pace of any Lebanese army progress and risks of renewed escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Khối lượng
$8,448,735
Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027
Thị trường mở
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Người giải quyết

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement signed in late June 2026 established pilot zones for limited Israeli withdrawals from two small areas in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming security responsibility there as an initial step. Full or phased Israeli redeployment remains conditioned on verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state groups by Lebanese forces, without a fixed timetable, as outlined in the accompanying security annex. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated that the security zone will be maintained until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, while Hezbollah has rejected the terms and demanded unconditional withdrawal. Subsequent implementation of even the pilot areas has faced delays tied to Lebanese army preparation and verification processes. No major new military or diplomatic shifts have occurred since the June accord, leaving trader assessments focused on the pace of any Lebanese army progress and risks of renewed escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Khối lượng
$8,448,735
Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027
Thị trường mở
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Người giải quyết

0x65070BE91...

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Câu hỏi thường gặp

"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 7 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "December 31" ở mức 6%, tiếp theo là "September 30" ở mức 1%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 6¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 6% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.

Tính đến hôm nay, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" đã tạo $8.4 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Apr 16, 2026. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.

Để giao dịch trên "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," duyệt 7 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.

Đây là thị trường mở rộng. Người dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" là "December 31" chỉ ở mức 6%, với "September 30" sát đằng sau ở 1%. Không kết quả nào chiếm đa số mạnh, trader xem đây là rất không chắc chắn, có thể tạo cơ hội giao dịch độc đáo. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực, vì vậy đánh dấu trang này để xem xác suất phát triển.

Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.