Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) leads trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win Kansas's 2026 U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-red status where Republicans have held both seats since 1932 and Donald Trump carried it by 16 points in 2024 recalled vote tallies. No competitive polling existed until a April 17 release of January Tavern Research survey showing independent pastor Adam Hamilton edging Marshall 51-49%, but traders dismissed the outlier from an unrated firm amid Marshall's dominance over hypothetical Democrats like Noah Taylor (55-45) and Patrick Schmidt (54-46). A crowded Democratic primary on August 4 lacks a standout contender, reinforcing GOP path-to-victory in this safe Republican seat per Cook Political ratings, with general election November 3.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$17,486 KL.
$17,486 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
77%
Democrat
20%
$17,486 KL.
$17,486 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$9,451 KL.
77%
Democrat
$8,035 KL.
20%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) leads trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win Kansas's 2026 U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-red status where Republicans have held both seats since 1932 and Donald Trump carried it by 16 points in 2024 recalled vote tallies. No competitive polling existed until a April 17 release of January Tavern Research survey showing independent pastor Adam Hamilton edging Marshall 51-49%, but traders dismissed the outlier from an unrated firm amid Marshall's dominance over hypothetical Democrats like Noah Taylor (55-45) and Patrick Schmidt (54-46). A crowded Democratic primary on August 4 lacks a standout contender, reinforcing GOP path-to-victory in this safe Republican seat per Cook Political ratings, with general election November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$17,486Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) leads trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win Kansas's 2026 U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-red status where Republicans have held both seats since 1932 and Donald Trump carried it by 16 points in 2024 recalled vote tallies. No competitive polling existed until a April 17 release of January Tavern Research survey showing independent pastor Adam Hamilton edging Marshall 51-49%, but traders dismissed the outlier from an unrated firm amid Marshall's dominance over hypothetical Democrats like Noah Taylor (55-45) and Patrick Schmidt (54-46). A crowded Democratic primary on August 4 lacks a standout contender, reinforcing GOP path-to-victory in this safe Republican seat per Cook Political ratings, with general election November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$17,486Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) leads trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win Kansas's 2026 U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-red status where Republicans have held both seats since 1932 and Donald Trump carried it by 16 points in 2024 recalled vote tallies. No competitive polling existed until a April 17 release of January Tavern Research survey showing independent pastor Adam Hamilton edging Marshall 51-49%, but traders dismissed the outlier from an unrated firm amid Marshall's dominance over hypothetical Democrats like Noah Taylor (55-45) and Patrick Schmidt (54-46). A crowded Democratic primary on August 4 lacks a standout contender, reinforcing GOP path-to-victory in this safe Republican seat per Cook Political ratings, with general election November 3.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp