**Forecast models from sources including Yr.no, WeatherBug, and regional outlooks indicate a minimum temperature near 4–6°C for Buenos Aires on August 22, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and high pressure favoring radiative cooling but within a mild winter air mass.** This consensus supports the leading market-implied probability on 1°C or higher, as overnight lows are expected well above freezing thresholds with no polar outbreak or significant cold advection in the latest runs. Historical August climatology for the city shows typical minima around 7–11°C, and recent weeks have featured variable but non-extreme conditions without the strong southerly surges seen earlier in winter. Model agreement on dry, stable weather reduces uncertainty in the near-term forecast, though minor revisions to cloud cover or wind could adjust the exact low by 1–2°C. No major data releases or agency updates are scheduled before resolution.